Forecast models for Qingdao on September 2 project overnight lows of 18–23 °C under mostly clear skies and light northerly flow, with trader-implied probabilities clustering on 18–19 °C reflecting the balance between radiative cooling over land and moderating marine influence from the Yellow Sea. Recent 10-day guidance shows consistency in dry, stable conditions typical of early September, when the climatological average minimum sits near 18 °C. Key variables separating the 17–19 °C outcomes include subtle differences in wind speed, boundary-layer mixing, and cloud-cover timing across ensemble runs; stronger northerlies or lingering marine layer moisture could limit cooling to the low 20s, while calm, clear nights favor the lower end. New model cycles expected overnight will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.