Recent forecasts from models like GFS indicate Tokyo’s overnight minimum on September 13 will likely settle near 21–22°C, driven by persistent cloud cover, light northeasterly winds, and elevated humidity that limit radiational cooling after recent rain-cooled conditions. This aligns with the market’s heavy weighting toward 22°C (50.5%) and 21°C (28.5%), reflecting trader consensus on stable mid-September climatology where typical lows hover around 22°C. Lower probabilities for 19°C or below stem from the absence of strong high-pressure systems or clear skies that would enhance cooling, while warmer outcomes above 23°C remain unlikely given the current steering pattern and model agreement. Updated runs ahead of the overnight period could refine these implied probabilities if wind or cloud trends shift.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più bassa a Tokyo il 13 settembre?
La temperatura più bassa a Tokyo il 13 settembre?
22°C 51%
21°C 29%
23°C 14%
19°C 12%
NUOVO
NUOVO
13 set 2026
17°C o inferiore
1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
12%
20°C
6%
21°C
29%
22°C
51%
23°C
14%
24°C
5%
25°C
1%
26°C
<1%
27°C o superiore
1%
22°C 51%
21°C 29%
23°C 14%
19°C 12%
NUOVO
NUOVO
13 set 2026
17°C o inferiore
$110 Vol.
1%
18°C
$43 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$0 Vol.
12%
20°C
$88 Vol.
6%
21°C
$378 Vol.
29%
22°C
$427 Vol.
51%
23°C
$389 Vol.
14%
24°C
$87 Vol.
5%
25°C
$43 Vol.
1%
26°C
$43 Vol.
<1%
27°C o superiore
$110 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from models like GFS indicate Tokyo’s overnight minimum on September 13 will likely settle near 21–22°C, driven by persistent cloud cover, light northeasterly winds, and elevated humidity that limit radiational cooling after recent rain-cooled conditions. This aligns with the market’s heavy weighting toward 22°C (50.5%) and 21°C (28.5%), reflecting trader consensus on stable mid-September climatology where typical lows hover around 22°C. Lower probabilities for 19°C or below stem from the absence of strong high-pressure systems or clear skies that would enhance cooling, while warmer outcomes above 23°C remain unlikely given the current steering pattern and model agreement. Updated runs ahead of the overnight period could refine these implied probabilities if wind or cloud trends shift.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Sep 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$1,718Data di fine
13 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from models like GFS indicate Tokyo’s overnight minimum on September 13 will likely settle near 21–22°C, driven by persistent cloud cover, light northeasterly winds, and elevated humidity that limit radiational cooling after recent rain-cooled conditions. This aligns with the market’s heavy weighting toward 22°C (50.5%) and 21°C (28.5%), reflecting trader consensus on stable mid-September climatology where typical lows hover around 22°C. Lower probabilities for 19°C or below stem from the absence of strong high-pressure systems or clear skies that would enhance cooling, while warmer outcomes above 23°C remain unlikely given the current steering pattern and model agreement. Updated runs ahead of the overnight period could refine these implied probabilities if wind or cloud trends shift.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,718Data di fine
13 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from models like GFS indicate Tokyo’s overnight minimum on September 13 will likely settle near 21–22°C, driven by persistent cloud cover, light northeasterly winds, and elevated humidity that limit radiational cooling after recent rain-cooled conditions. This aligns with the market’s heavy weighting toward 22°C (50.5%) and 21°C (28.5%), reflecting trader consensus on stable mid-September climatology where typical lows hover around 22°C. Lower probabilities for 19°C or below stem from the absence of strong high-pressure systems or clear skies that would enhance cooling, while warmer outcomes above 23°C remain unlikely given the current steering pattern and model agreement. Updated runs ahead of the overnight period could refine these implied probabilities if wind or cloud trends shift.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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