As of August 2026, trader consensus favoring "No" at roughly 76% for a qualifying natural disaster reflects the absence of extreme atmospheric or seismic signals in official NOAA and USGS monitoring data through mid-year. Current ENSO-neutral conditions and moderate Atlantic hurricane forecasts from NHC models align with typical seasonal patterns rather than record anomalies, reducing the likelihood of a single high-threshold event—such as a Category 5 landfall, magnitude 9+ quake, or VEI 6+ eruption—meeting resolution criteria in the remaining months. Historical baselines show multiple disasters annually, yet the lack of recent escalations in storm intensity, seismic activity, or volcanic alerts keeps implied odds for "Yes" suppressed ahead of key forecast updates.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoDisastro naturale nel 2026?
Disastro naturale nel 2026?
Sì
$232,536 Vol.
$232,536 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$232,536 Vol.
$232,536 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
As of August 2026, trader consensus favoring "No" at roughly 76% for a qualifying natural disaster reflects the absence of extreme atmospheric or seismic signals in official NOAA and USGS monitoring data through mid-year. Current ENSO-neutral conditions and moderate Atlantic hurricane forecasts from NHC models align with typical seasonal patterns rather than record anomalies, reducing the likelihood of a single high-threshold event—such as a Category 5 landfall, magnitude 9+ quake, or VEI 6+ eruption—meeting resolution criteria in the remaining months. Historical baselines show multiple disasters annually, yet the lack of recent escalations in storm intensity, seismic activity, or volcanic alerts keeps implied odds for "Yes" suppressed ahead of key forecast updates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Mercato aperto: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volume
$232,536Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
As of August 2026, trader consensus favoring "No" at roughly 76% for a qualifying natural disaster reflects the absence of extreme atmospheric or seismic signals in official NOAA and USGS monitoring data through mid-year. Current ENSO-neutral conditions and moderate Atlantic hurricane forecasts from NHC models align with typical seasonal patterns rather than record anomalies, reducing the likelihood of a single high-threshold event—such as a Category 5 landfall, magnitude 9+ quake, or VEI 6+ eruption—meeting resolution criteria in the remaining months. Historical baselines show multiple disasters annually, yet the lack of recent escalations in storm intensity, seismic activity, or volcanic alerts keeps implied odds for "Yes" suppressed ahead of key forecast updates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volume
$232,536Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...As of August 2026, trader consensus favoring "No" at roughly 76% for a qualifying natural disaster reflects the absence of extreme atmospheric or seismic signals in official NOAA and USGS monitoring data through mid-year. Current ENSO-neutral conditions and moderate Atlantic hurricane forecasts from NHC models align with typical seasonal patterns rather than record anomalies, reducing the likelihood of a single high-threshold event—such as a Category 5 landfall, magnitude 9+ quake, or VEI 6+ eruption—meeting resolution criteria in the remaining months. Historical baselines show multiple disasters annually, yet the lack of recent escalations in storm intensity, seismic activity, or volcanic alerts keeps implied odds for "Yes" suppressed ahead of key forecast updates.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti