The Republican Party holds an 83.5% implied probability in the NY-24 House race due to the district's R+11 partisan voter index and reliably Republican rural and suburban counties along Lake Ontario. Incumbent Claudia Tenney secured 65.7% of the vote in 2024 and faces only a minor primary challenge ahead of the June 23, 2026, contest. Democratic candidates remain limited in visibility and resources, consistent with the Solid Republican rating from multiple forecasters. No recent polling or events have altered the structural advantage for the GOP nominee entering the general election on November 3, 2026.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNY-24 House Election Winner
NY-24 House Election Winner
NUOVO
NUOVO
3 nov 2026
Republican Party
84%
Democratic Party
17%
NUOVO
NUOVO
3 nov 2026
Republican Party
$2,073 Vol.
84%
Democratic Party
$1,878 Vol.
17%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Republican Party holds an 83.5% implied probability in the NY-24 House race due to the district's R+11 partisan voter index and reliably Republican rural and suburban counties along Lake Ontario. Incumbent Claudia Tenney secured 65.7% of the vote in 2024 and faces only a minor primary challenge ahead of the June 23, 2026, contest. Democratic candidates remain limited in visibility and resources, consistent with the Solid Republican rating from multiple forecasters. No recent polling or events have altered the structural advantage for the GOP nominee entering the general election on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$3,951Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Republican Party holds an 83.5% implied probability in the NY-24 House race due to the district's R+11 partisan voter index and reliably Republican rural and suburban counties along Lake Ontario. Incumbent Claudia Tenney secured 65.7% of the vote in 2024 and faces only a minor primary challenge ahead of the June 23, 2026, contest. Democratic candidates remain limited in visibility and resources, consistent with the Solid Republican rating from multiple forecasters. No recent polling or events have altered the structural advantage for the GOP nominee entering the general election on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$3,951Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Republican Party holds an 83.5% implied probability in the NY-24 House race due to the district's R+11 partisan voter index and reliably Republican rural and suburban counties along Lake Ontario. Incumbent Claudia Tenney secured 65.7% of the vote in 2024 and faces only a minor primary challenge ahead of the June 23, 2026, contest. Democratic candidates remain limited in visibility and resources, consistent with the Solid Republican rating from multiple forecasters. No recent polling or events have altered the structural advantage for the GOP nominee entering the general election on November 3, 2026.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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