Incumbent Democrat Joseph Morelle's strong primary win in June 2026, combined with the district's consistent Democratic lean and his substantial fundraising edge, anchors trader consensus for a Democratic hold in the November general election. Race ratings from major forecasters classify the seat as solidly or safely Democratic, reflecting Morelle's prior victories and the Republican nominee's limited resources. The wisdom of crowds in prediction markets prices in these structural advantages. A Republican upset would require an unforeseen national midterm surge, a major scandal or health event affecting Morelle, or a sharp shift in local turnout patterns before Election Day.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoVincitore delle elezioni della Camera NY-25
Vincitore delle elezioni della Camera NY-25
$33,113 Vol.
$33,113 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partito Democratico
96%
Partito Repubblicano
3%
$33,113 Vol.
$33,113 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partito Democratico
$22,758 Vol.
96%
Partito Repubblicano
$10,354 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Joseph Morelle's strong primary win in June 2026, combined with the district's consistent Democratic lean and his substantial fundraising edge, anchors trader consensus for a Democratic hold in the November general election. Race ratings from major forecasters classify the seat as solidly or safely Democratic, reflecting Morelle's prior victories and the Republican nominee's limited resources. The wisdom of crowds in prediction markets prices in these structural advantages. A Republican upset would require an unforeseen national midterm surge, a major scandal or health event affecting Morelle, or a sharp shift in local turnout patterns before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$33,113Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Joseph Morelle's strong primary win in June 2026, combined with the district's consistent Democratic lean and his substantial fundraising edge, anchors trader consensus for a Democratic hold in the November general election. Race ratings from major forecasters classify the seat as solidly or safely Democratic, reflecting Morelle's prior victories and the Republican nominee's limited resources. The wisdom of crowds in prediction markets prices in these structural advantages. A Republican upset would require an unforeseen national midterm surge, a major scandal or health event affecting Morelle, or a sharp shift in local turnout patterns before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$33,113Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Joseph Morelle's strong primary win in June 2026, combined with the district's consistent Democratic lean and his substantial fundraising edge, anchors trader consensus for a Democratic hold in the November general election. Race ratings from major forecasters classify the seat as solidly or safely Democratic, reflecting Morelle's prior victories and the Republican nominee's limited resources. The wisdom of crowds in prediction markets prices in these structural advantages. A Republican upset would require an unforeseen national midterm surge, a major scandal or health event affecting Morelle, or a sharp shift in local turnout patterns before Election Day.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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