Iowa’s 4th Congressional District remains a longstanding Republican stronghold in northwestern Iowa, anchored by rural and agricultural voters who have delivered consistent GOP margins in recent cycles. The open seat created by incumbent Randy Feenstra’s retirement to pursue the governorship has not altered this baseline, as Republican nominee Chris McGowan secured the nomination unopposed following a Trump endorsement and now faces Democratic nominee Dave Dawson, a former state representative. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, aligning with the current 92.5% Republican implied probability on Polymarket. A national Democratic surge, candidate-specific scandal, or unusually high opposition turnout could narrow the gap, though structural factors and the compressed timeline to November limit realistic paths for a Democratic upset.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoIA-04 House Election Winner
IA-04 House Election Winner
$32,156 Vol.
$32,156 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Republican Party
93%
Democratic Party
7%
$32,156 Vol.
$32,156 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Republican Party
$20,064 Vol.
93%
Democratic Party
$12,091 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Iowa’s 4th Congressional District remains a longstanding Republican stronghold in northwestern Iowa, anchored by rural and agricultural voters who have delivered consistent GOP margins in recent cycles. The open seat created by incumbent Randy Feenstra’s retirement to pursue the governorship has not altered this baseline, as Republican nominee Chris McGowan secured the nomination unopposed following a Trump endorsement and now faces Democratic nominee Dave Dawson, a former state representative. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, aligning with the current 92.5% Republican implied probability on Polymarket. A national Democratic surge, candidate-specific scandal, or unusually high opposition turnout could narrow the gap, though structural factors and the compressed timeline to November limit realistic paths for a Democratic upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volume
$32,156Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Iowa’s 4th Congressional District remains a longstanding Republican stronghold in northwestern Iowa, anchored by rural and agricultural voters who have delivered consistent GOP margins in recent cycles. The open seat created by incumbent Randy Feenstra’s retirement to pursue the governorship has not altered this baseline, as Republican nominee Chris McGowan secured the nomination unopposed following a Trump endorsement and now faces Democratic nominee Dave Dawson, a former state representative. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, aligning with the current 92.5% Republican implied probability on Polymarket. A national Democratic surge, candidate-specific scandal, or unusually high opposition turnout could narrow the gap, though structural factors and the compressed timeline to November limit realistic paths for a Democratic upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$32,156Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Iowa’s 4th Congressional District remains a longstanding Republican stronghold in northwestern Iowa, anchored by rural and agricultural voters who have delivered consistent GOP margins in recent cycles. The open seat created by incumbent Randy Feenstra’s retirement to pursue the governorship has not altered this baseline, as Republican nominee Chris McGowan secured the nomination unopposed following a Trump endorsement and now faces Democratic nominee Dave Dawson, a former state representative. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, aligning with the current 92.5% Republican implied probability on Polymarket. A national Democratic surge, candidate-specific scandal, or unusually high opposition turnout could narrow the gap, though structural factors and the compressed timeline to November limit realistic paths for a Democratic upset.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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