Cait Conley's 59.5% implied probability reflects trader assessment of her profile as a combat veteran and former national security official who secured the Democratic nomination in June 2026 against a crowded field in New York's 17th Congressional District. The race centers on a Hudson Valley swing seat rated a toss-up by Cook Political Report, where Kamala Harris narrowly carried the district in 2024 while Republican incumbent Mike Lawler won reelection by six points. Key factors include roughly 80,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans, Lawler's voting record on tax and spending measures, and national midterm dynamics under the current administration. A July poll showed Lawler ahead by five points, underscoring the competitive nature ahead of the November general election.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$14,813 Vol.
$14,813 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Cait Conley (D)
60%
Mike Lawler (R)
40%
$14,813 Vol.
$14,813 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Cait Conley (D)
$6,165 Vol.
60%
Mike Lawler (R)
$8,648 Vol.
40%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Cait Conley's 59.5% implied probability reflects trader assessment of her profile as a combat veteran and former national security official who secured the Democratic nomination in June 2026 against a crowded field in New York's 17th Congressional District. The race centers on a Hudson Valley swing seat rated a toss-up by Cook Political Report, where Kamala Harris narrowly carried the district in 2024 while Republican incumbent Mike Lawler won reelection by six points. Key factors include roughly 80,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans, Lawler's voting record on tax and spending measures, and national midterm dynamics under the current administration. A July poll showed Lawler ahead by five points, underscoring the competitive nature ahead of the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
Volume
$14,813Data di fine
4 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Cait Conley's 59.5% implied probability reflects trader assessment of her profile as a combat veteran and former national security official who secured the Democratic nomination in June 2026 against a crowded field in New York's 17th Congressional District. The race centers on a Hudson Valley swing seat rated a toss-up by Cook Political Report, where Kamala Harris narrowly carried the district in 2024 while Republican incumbent Mike Lawler won reelection by six points. Key factors include roughly 80,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans, Lawler's voting record on tax and spending measures, and national midterm dynamics under the current administration. A July poll showed Lawler ahead by five points, underscoring the competitive nature ahead of the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$14,813Data di fine
4 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...Cait Conley's 59.5% implied probability reflects trader assessment of her profile as a combat veteran and former national security official who secured the Democratic nomination in June 2026 against a crowded field in New York's 17th Congressional District. The race centers on a Hudson Valley swing seat rated a toss-up by Cook Political Report, where Kamala Harris narrowly carried the district in 2024 while Republican incumbent Mike Lawler won reelection by six points. Key factors include roughly 80,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans, Lawler's voting record on tax and spending measures, and national midterm dynamics under the current administration. A July poll showed Lawler ahead by five points, underscoring the competitive nature ahead of the November general election.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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