OpenAI’s recent revenue run rate exceeding $40 billion annualized—roughly double year-end 2025 levels following GPT-5.6 and related model launches—combined with investor discussions around a pre-IPO financing at $1.2–1.5 trillion, has anchored trader expectations for a 2027 listing well above the March 2026 private valuation of $852 billion. CEO Sam Altman’s September confirmation that an IPO would be “ill-advised” this year due to AI safety priorities has shifted the timeline into 2027, supporting the 60.8% market-implied probability of a closing market cap above $1.5 trillion while leaving a 21.8% chance of no IPO by end-2027. High compute spending and unprofitability remain key variables that could influence final pricing.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato1,5T+ 61.3%
Nessuna quotazione in borsa entro il 31 dicembre 2027 21.8%
1,25T–1,5T 10%
1T–1,25T 3.8%
$371,748 Vol.
$371,748 Vol.
31 dic 2027
<500 miliardi
1%
500–750 miliardi
1%
750B–1T
3%
1T–1,25T
4%
1,25T–1,5T
10%
1,5T+
61%
Nessuna quotazione in borsa entro il 31 dicembre 2027
22%
1,5T+ 61.3%
Nessuna quotazione in borsa entro il 31 dicembre 2027 21.8%
1,25T–1,5T 10%
1T–1,25T 3.8%
$371,748 Vol.
$371,748 Vol.
31 dic 2027
<500 miliardi
$30,077 Vol.
1%
500–750 miliardi
$28,042 Vol.
1%
750B–1T
$66,138 Vol.
3%
1T–1,25T
$49,455 Vol.
4%
1,25T–1,5T
$38,935 Vol.
10%
1,5T+
$78,366 Vol.
61%
Nessuna quotazione in borsa entro il 31 dicembre 2027
$80,733 Vol.
22%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI’s recent revenue run rate exceeding $40 billion annualized—roughly double year-end 2025 levels following GPT-5.6 and related model launches—combined with investor discussions around a pre-IPO financing at $1.2–1.5 trillion, has anchored trader expectations for a 2027 listing well above the March 2026 private valuation of $852 billion. CEO Sam Altman’s September confirmation that an IPO would be “ill-advised” this year due to AI safety priorities has shifted the timeline into 2027, supporting the 60.8% market-implied probability of a closing market cap above $1.5 trillion while leaving a 21.8% chance of no IPO by end-2027. High compute spending and unprofitability remain key variables that could influence final pricing.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Mercato aperto: Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Volume
$371,748Data di fine
1 gen 2028Mercato aperto
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETRisolutore
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI’s recent revenue run rate exceeding $40 billion annualized—roughly double year-end 2025 levels following GPT-5.6 and related model launches—combined with investor discussions around a pre-IPO financing at $1.2–1.5 trillion, has anchored trader expectations for a 2027 listing well above the March 2026 private valuation of $852 billion. CEO Sam Altman’s September confirmation that an IPO would be “ill-advised” this year due to AI safety priorities has shifted the timeline into 2027, supporting the 60.8% market-implied probability of a closing market cap above $1.5 trillion while leaving a 21.8% chance of no IPO by end-2027. High compute spending and unprofitability remain key variables that could influence final pricing.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$371,748Data di fine
1 gen 2028Mercato aperto
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETRisolutore
0x2f5e3684c...OpenAI’s recent revenue run rate exceeding $40 billion annualized—roughly double year-end 2025 levels following GPT-5.6 and related model launches—combined with investor discussions around a pre-IPO financing at $1.2–1.5 trillion, has anchored trader expectations for a 2027 listing well above the March 2026 private valuation of $852 billion. CEO Sam Altman’s September confirmation that an IPO would be “ill-advised” this year due to AI safety priorities has shifted the timeline into 2027, supporting the 60.8% market-implied probability of a closing market cap above $1.5 trillion while leaving a 21.8% chance of no IPO by end-2027. High compute spending and unprofitability remain key variables that could influence final pricing.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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