Recent early-September activity, including 29 local storm reports and 10 confirmed damage paths from September 4–14 across regions from the Gulf Coast to the Upper Midwest, has elevated preliminary 2026 counts to 28 by mid-month per Storm Prediction Center data. September climatology typically yields 50–80 U.S. tornadoes, driven by residual warm-season instability or landfalling tropical systems, though dynamics weaken without strong jet stream support or cyclones. With limited additional reports noted through September 21 and no major tropical impacts evident, trader consensus favors the 50–74 range at 53.5% implied probability, ahead of 25–49 at 40.5%, reflecting measured expectations for near-average totals amid ongoing seasonal decline.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoTornado statunitensi nel settembre 2026
Tornado statunitensi nel settembre 2026
50 - 74 54%
25 - 49 49%
75 - 124 47%
Meno di 25 3.2%
NUOVO
NUOVO
14 ott 2026
Meno di 25
3%
25 - 49
49%
50 - 74
54%
75 - 124
47%
125 o più
3%
50 - 74 54%
25 - 49 49%
75 - 124 47%
Meno di 25 3.2%
NUOVO
NUOVO
14 ott 2026
Meno di 25
$50 Vol.
3%
25 - 49
$0 Vol.
49%
50 - 74
$0 Vol.
54%
75 - 124
$22 Vol.
47%
125 o più
$45 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Recent early-September activity, including 29 local storm reports and 10 confirmed damage paths from September 4–14 across regions from the Gulf Coast to the Upper Midwest, has elevated preliminary 2026 counts to 28 by mid-month per Storm Prediction Center data. September climatology typically yields 50–80 U.S. tornadoes, driven by residual warm-season instability or landfalling tropical systems, though dynamics weaken without strong jet stream support or cyclones. With limited additional reports noted through September 21 and no major tropical impacts evident, trader consensus favors the 50–74 range at 53.5% implied probability, ahead of 25–49 at 40.5%, reflecting measured expectations for near-average totals amid ongoing seasonal decline.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Mercato aperto: Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ET
Volume
$118Data di fine
14 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Recent early-September activity, including 29 local storm reports and 10 confirmed damage paths from September 4–14 across regions from the Gulf Coast to the Upper Midwest, has elevated preliminary 2026 counts to 28 by mid-month per Storm Prediction Center data. September climatology typically yields 50–80 U.S. tornadoes, driven by residual warm-season instability or landfalling tropical systems, though dynamics weaken without strong jet stream support or cyclones. With limited additional reports noted through September 21 and no major tropical impacts evident, trader consensus favors the 50–74 range at 53.5% implied probability, ahead of 25–49 at 40.5%, reflecting measured expectations for near-average totals amid ongoing seasonal decline.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$118Data di fine
14 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Recent early-September activity, including 29 local storm reports and 10 confirmed damage paths from September 4–14 across regions from the Gulf Coast to the Upper Midwest, has elevated preliminary 2026 counts to 28 by mid-month per Storm Prediction Center data. September climatology typically yields 50–80 U.S. tornadoes, driven by residual warm-season instability or landfalling tropical systems, though dynamics weaken without strong jet stream support or cyclones. With limited additional reports noted through September 21 and no major tropical impacts evident, trader consensus favors the 50–74 range at 53.5% implied probability, ahead of 25–49 at 40.5%, reflecting measured expectations for near-average totals amid ongoing seasonal decline.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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