**Trader consensus assigns an 83.5% implied probability that the United States will not invade Iran before 2027.** This reflects the pattern of the ongoing conflict that began with U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on February 28, 2026, followed by Iranian retaliation, a short-lived April ceasefire, a June memorandum of understanding that collapsed amid renewed clashes, and limited tit-for-tat strikes continuing into September 2026. Recent developments center on naval enforcement in the Strait of Hormuz, targeted U.S. strikes on Iranian coastal and military sites in response to attacks on shipping, and a redoubled sanctions campaign. U.S. officials have emphasized air, missile, and economic pressure rather than ground operations. Reports indicate contingency planning for limited ground actions, such as seizing enriched uranium, was considered but paused due to risks of escalation, casualties, and munitions shortages. President Trump has outlined options including further strikes, economic measures, or a negotiated deal, while expressing openness to talks on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. Diplomatic efforts through Qatari and Pakistani mediators continue, with Iran conveying conditions for renewed engagement. The absence of large-scale troop deployments or invasion preparations, combined with high operational costs exceeding $38 billion and inventory constraints, supports the market's assessment that a full-scale U.S. invasion remains unlikely within the 2026 timeframe.