The dominant market-implied odds of 98.7% for no change at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting reflect the Federal Reserve’s data-dependent stance amid April 2026 CPI inflation at 3.8% year-over-year—driven by energy price pressures—and May nonfarm payrolls adding 172,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.3%. These figures have reinforced trader consensus around holding the federal funds target range at 3.50-3.75%, consistent with recent FOMC communications prioritizing upside inflation risks. The upcoming May CPI release on June 10 and any further geopolitical developments affecting oil prices remain the primary variables that could still shift expectations ahead of the meeting.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日変更なし 98.6%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ <1%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ <1%
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き下げ <1%
$60,548,243 Vol.
$60,548,243 Vol.
2026/06/17
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き下げ
<1%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ
1%
変更なし
99%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ
<1%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ
<1%
変更なし 98.6%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ <1%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ <1%
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き下げ <1%
$60,548,243 Vol.
$60,548,243 Vol.
2026/06/17
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き下げ
$14,523,005 Vol.
<1%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ
$11,219,246 Vol.
1%
変更なし
$10,335,837 Vol.
99%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ
$9,862,550 Vol.
<1%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ
$14,742,094 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The dominant market-implied odds of 98.7% for no change at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting reflect the Federal Reserve’s data-dependent stance amid April 2026 CPI inflation at 3.8% year-over-year—driven by energy price pressures—and May nonfarm payrolls adding 172,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.3%. These figures have reinforced trader consensus around holding the federal funds target range at 3.50-3.75%, consistent with recent FOMC communications prioritizing upside inflation risks. The upcoming May CPI release on June 10 and any further geopolitical developments affecting oil prices remain the primary variables that could still shift expectations ahead of the meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
マーケット開始日： Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ET
音量
$60,548,243終了日
2026/06/17マーケット開始日
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The dominant market-implied odds of 98.7% for no change at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting reflect the Federal Reserve’s data-dependent stance amid April 2026 CPI inflation at 3.8% year-over-year—driven by energy price pressures—and May nonfarm payrolls adding 172,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.3%. These figures have reinforced trader consensus around holding the federal funds target range at 3.50-3.75%, consistent with recent FOMC communications prioritizing upside inflation risks. The upcoming May CPI release on June 10 and any further geopolitical developments affecting oil prices remain the primary variables that could still shift expectations ahead of the meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
音量
$60,548,243終了日
2026/06/17マーケット開始日
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The dominant market-implied odds of 98.7% for no change at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting reflect the Federal Reserve’s data-dependent stance amid April 2026 CPI inflation at 3.8% year-over-year—driven by energy price pressures—and May nonfarm payrolls adding 172,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.3%. These figures have reinforced trader consensus around holding the federal funds target range at 3.50-3.75%, consistent with recent FOMC communications prioritizing upside inflation risks. The upcoming May CPI release on June 10 and any further geopolitical developments affecting oil prices remain the primary variables that could still shift expectations ahead of the meeting.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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