Traders see nearly equal odds for a 28°C or 29°C high in Istanbul on August 4 because short-range ensemble forecasts show a tight cluster of outcomes around seasonal norms, with modest spread from model differences in boundary-layer mixing and local wind regimes. The city's position between the Black Sea and Sea of Marmara allows sea breezes to moderate peak heating, while urban surfaces and light synoptic flow can add 1–2°C on days with stronger insolation. Recent model runs indicate mostly sunny conditions with highs near the long-term early-August average of 28–29°C; small shifts in timing of any weak trough or humidity increase could tip the daily maximum either way. New ECMWF and GFS updates over the next 24 hours remain the key catalysts for market movement.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月4日のイスタンブールの最高気温は？
8月4日のイスタンブールの最高気温は？
28°C 47%
29°C 36%
30°C 14%
27°C 11%
新規
新規
2026/08/04
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
2%
27°C
11%
28°C
47%
29°C
36%
30°C
14%
31°C
2%
32°C
2%
33°C
2%
34°C or higher
2%
28°C 47%
29°C 36%
30°C 14%
27°C 11%
新規
新規
2026/08/04
24°C or below
$0 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$31 Vol.
1%
26°C
$16 Vol.
2%
27°C
$0 Vol.
11%
28°C
$12 Vol.
47%
29°C
$0 Vol.
36%
30°C
$0 Vol.
14%
31°C
$0 Vol.
2%
32°C
$0 Vol.
2%
33°C
$30 Vol.
2%
34°C or higher
$10 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see nearly equal odds for a 28°C or 29°C high in Istanbul on August 4 because short-range ensemble forecasts show a tight cluster of outcomes around seasonal norms, with modest spread from model differences in boundary-layer mixing and local wind regimes. The city's position between the Black Sea and Sea of Marmara allows sea breezes to moderate peak heating, while urban surfaces and light synoptic flow can add 1–2°C on days with stronger insolation. Recent model runs indicate mostly sunny conditions with highs near the long-term early-August average of 28–29°C; small shifts in timing of any weak trough or humidity increase could tip the daily maximum either way. New ECMWF and GFS updates over the next 24 hours remain the key catalysts for market movement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Aug 2, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
音量
$99終了日
2026/08/04マーケット開始日
Aug 2, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see nearly equal odds for a 28°C or 29°C high in Istanbul on August 4 because short-range ensemble forecasts show a tight cluster of outcomes around seasonal norms, with modest spread from model differences in boundary-layer mixing and local wind regimes. The city's position between the Black Sea and Sea of Marmara allows sea breezes to moderate peak heating, while urban surfaces and light synoptic flow can add 1–2°C on days with stronger insolation. Recent model runs indicate mostly sunny conditions with highs near the long-term early-August average of 28–29°C; small shifts in timing of any weak trough or humidity increase could tip the daily maximum either way. New ECMWF and GFS updates over the next 24 hours remain the key catalysts for market movement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$99終了日
2026/08/04マーケット開始日
Aug 2, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see nearly equal odds for a 28°C or 29°C high in Istanbul on August 4 because short-range ensemble forecasts show a tight cluster of outcomes around seasonal norms, with modest spread from model differences in boundary-layer mixing and local wind regimes. The city's position between the Black Sea and Sea of Marmara allows sea breezes to moderate peak heating, while urban surfaces and light synoptic flow can add 1–2°C on days with stronger insolation. Recent model runs indicate mostly sunny conditions with highs near the long-term early-August average of 28–29°C; small shifts in timing of any weak trough or humidity increase could tip the daily maximum either way. New ECMWF and GFS updates over the next 24 hours remain the key catalysts for market movement.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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