Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects closely matched implied probabilities for 29°C (29.5%) and 30°C (28.5%) as São Paulo's highest temperature on April 18, driven by the latest INMET and international forecast models like GFS and ECMWF showing ensemble means around 29–30°C under a persistent subtropical high-pressure ridge fostering clear skies and enhanced solar insolation. Recent observations of 27°C maxima on April 15–16, amid above-average autumn heat from stable atmospheric conditions, support slight warming potential, but uncertainty arises from variable sea breeze incursions and possible afternoon cumulus clouds that could limit peaks to 28°C or boost them via urban heat island effects. Key differentiators include boundary layer mixing and ridge positioning; watch INMET's April 17 update and new model runs for resolution shifts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on April 18?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on April 18?
29°C 31%
30°C 31%
28°C 24%
27°C 13%
新規
新規
2026/04/18
24°C or below
1%
25°C
4%
26°C
8%
27°C
13%
28°C
19%
29°C
31%
30°C
31%
31°C
11%
32°C
7%
33°C
3%
34°C or higher
1%
29°C 31%
30°C 31%
28°C 24%
27°C 13%
新規
新規
2026/04/18
24°C or below
$260 Vol.
1%
25°C
$68 Vol.
4%
26°C
$40 Vol.
8%
27°C
$61 Vol.
13%
28°C
$49 Vol.
19%
29°C
$73 Vol.
31%
30°C
$84 Vol.
31%
31°C
$110 Vol.
11%
32°C
$82 Vol.
7%
33°C
$61 Vol.
3%
34°C or higher
$278 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects closely matched implied probabilities for 29°C (29.5%) and 30°C (28.5%) as São Paulo's highest temperature on April 18, driven by the latest INMET and international forecast models like GFS and ECMWF showing ensemble means around 29–30°C under a persistent subtropical high-pressure ridge fostering clear skies and enhanced solar insolation. Recent observations of 27°C maxima on April 15–16, amid above-average autumn heat from stable atmospheric conditions, support slight warming potential, but uncertainty arises from variable sea breeze incursions and possible afternoon cumulus clouds that could limit peaks to 28°C or boost them via urban heat island effects. Key differentiators include boundary layer mixing and ridge positioning; watch INMET's April 17 update and new model runs for resolution shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Apr 16, 2026, 12:26 AM ET
音量
$1,166終了日
2026/04/18マーケット開始日
Apr 16, 2026, 12:26 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects closely matched implied probabilities for 29°C (29.5%) and 30°C (28.5%) as São Paulo's highest temperature on April 18, driven by the latest INMET and international forecast models like GFS and ECMWF showing ensemble means around 29–30°C under a persistent subtropical high-pressure ridge fostering clear skies and enhanced solar insolation. Recent observations of 27°C maxima on April 15–16, amid above-average autumn heat from stable atmospheric conditions, support slight warming potential, but uncertainty arises from variable sea breeze incursions and possible afternoon cumulus clouds that could limit peaks to 28°C or boost them via urban heat island effects. Key differentiators include boundary layer mixing and ridge positioning; watch INMET's April 17 update and new model runs for resolution shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$1,166終了日
2026/04/18マーケット開始日
Apr 16, 2026, 12:26 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects closely matched implied probabilities for 29°C (29.5%) and 30°C (28.5%) as São Paulo's highest temperature on April 18, driven by the latest INMET and international forecast models like GFS and ECMWF showing ensemble means around 29–30°C under a persistent subtropical high-pressure ridge fostering clear skies and enhanced solar insolation. Recent observations of 27°C maxima on April 15–16, amid above-average autumn heat from stable atmospheric conditions, support slight warming potential, but uncertainty arises from variable sea breeze incursions and possible afternoon cumulus clouds that could limit peaks to 28°C or boost them via urban heat island effects. Key differentiators include boundary layer mixing and ridge positioning; watch INMET's April 17 update and new model runs for resolution shifts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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