**Forecast variability across numerical weather models drives the tight clustering between 34°C (37.5%) and 35°C (33.0%) implied probabilities.** Recent days have seen maxima near 37–38°C under a strong subtropical high with clear skies and light winds, but updated runs for August 4 indicate possible modest increases in cloud cover or isolated showers that could cap the daily high slightly lower. Shanghai’s urban heat island effect and high humidity typical of the East Asian summer monsoon add sensitivity to small changes in insolation and boundary-layer mixing. Official monitoring from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration will resolve the exact maximum recorded at standard stations, with traders weighting ensemble consensus and local model bias when assigning near-even odds between the two leading outcomes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月4日の上海の最高気温は？
8月4日の上海の最高気温は？
34°C 37%
35°C 33%
33°C 18%
36°C 11%
新規
新規
2026/08/04
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
2%
31°C
2%
32°C
4%
33°C
18%
34°C
37%
35°C
33%
36°C
11%
37°C
2%
38°C
4%
39℃以上
<1%
34°C 37%
35°C 33%
33°C 18%
36°C 11%
新規
新規
2026/08/04
29°C or below
$12 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$104 Vol.
2%
31°C
$61 Vol.
2%
32°C
$197 Vol.
4%
33°C
$204 Vol.
18%
34°C
$128 Vol.
37%
35°C
$411 Vol.
33%
36°C
$86 Vol.
11%
37°C
$41 Vol.
2%
38°C
$125 Vol.
4%
39℃以上
$20 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast variability across numerical weather models drives the tight clustering between 34°C (37.5%) and 35°C (33.0%) implied probabilities.** Recent days have seen maxima near 37–38°C under a strong subtropical high with clear skies and light winds, but updated runs for August 4 indicate possible modest increases in cloud cover or isolated showers that could cap the daily high slightly lower. Shanghai’s urban heat island effect and high humidity typical of the East Asian summer monsoon add sensitivity to small changes in insolation and boundary-layer mixing. Official monitoring from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration will resolve the exact maximum recorded at standard stations, with traders weighting ensemble consensus and local model bias when assigning near-even odds between the two leading outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Aug 2, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
音量
$1,390終了日
2026/08/04マーケット開始日
Aug 2, 2026, 12:03 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast variability across numerical weather models drives the tight clustering between 34°C (37.5%) and 35°C (33.0%) implied probabilities.** Recent days have seen maxima near 37–38°C under a strong subtropical high with clear skies and light winds, but updated runs for August 4 indicate possible modest increases in cloud cover or isolated showers that could cap the daily high slightly lower. Shanghai’s urban heat island effect and high humidity typical of the East Asian summer monsoon add sensitivity to small changes in insolation and boundary-layer mixing. Official monitoring from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration will resolve the exact maximum recorded at standard stations, with traders weighting ensemble consensus and local model bias when assigning near-even odds between the two leading outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$1,390終了日
2026/08/04マーケット開始日
Aug 2, 2026, 12:03 AM ET**Forecast variability across numerical weather models drives the tight clustering between 34°C (37.5%) and 35°C (33.0%) implied probabilities.** Recent days have seen maxima near 37–38°C under a strong subtropical high with clear skies and light winds, but updated runs for August 4 indicate possible modest increases in cloud cover or isolated showers that could cap the daily high slightly lower. Shanghai’s urban heat island effect and high humidity typical of the East Asian summer monsoon add sensitivity to small changes in insolation and boundary-layer mixing. Official monitoring from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration will resolve the exact maximum recorded at standard stations, with traders weighting ensemble consensus and local model bias when assigning near-even odds between the two leading outcomes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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