Recent forecasts from major models place Warsaw's peak temperature on August 3 in the 28–31 °C range, with ensemble spreads producing the tight clustering around 29 °C (market-implied 30 %) and 30 °C (21.5 %). Surface high pressure centered over central Europe and light easterly flow are limiting daytime mixing while allowing strong insolation under mostly clear skies, pushing maximums near or slightly above the late-summer climatological mean of ~26 °C. Model-to-model differences in boundary-layer moisture and timing of any weak frontal passage create the observed 1–2 °C uncertainty band that traders are pricing; later ECMWF and GFS runs this weekend will likely tighten the distribution ahead of market resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月3日のワルシャワの最高気温は？
8月3日のワルシャワの最高気温は？
29°C 31%
30°C 22%
28°C 17%
31°C 14%
新規
新規
2026/08/03
25°C or below
1%
26°C
4%
27°C
12%
28°C
17%
29°C
31%
30°C
22%
31°C
14%
32°C
3%
33°C
4%
34°C
2%
35°C or higher
<1%
29°C 31%
30°C 22%
28°C 17%
31°C 14%
新規
新規
2026/08/03
25°C or below
$10 Vol.
1%
26°C
$20 Vol.
4%
27°C
$0 Vol.
12%
28°C
$7 Vol.
17%
29°C
$7 Vol.
31%
30°C
$9 Vol.
22%
31°C
$0 Vol.
14%
32°C
$0 Vol.
3%
33°C
$20 Vol.
4%
34°C
$20 Vol.
2%
35°C or higher
$15 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from major models place Warsaw's peak temperature on August 3 in the 28–31 °C range, with ensemble spreads producing the tight clustering around 29 °C (market-implied 30 %) and 30 °C (21.5 %). Surface high pressure centered over central Europe and light easterly flow are limiting daytime mixing while allowing strong insolation under mostly clear skies, pushing maximums near or slightly above the late-summer climatological mean of ~26 °C. Model-to-model differences in boundary-layer moisture and timing of any weak frontal passage create the observed 1–2 °C uncertainty band that traders are pricing; later ECMWF and GFS runs this weekend will likely tighten the distribution ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Aug 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
音量
$108終了日
2026/08/03マーケット開始日
Aug 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from major models place Warsaw's peak temperature on August 3 in the 28–31 °C range, with ensemble spreads producing the tight clustering around 29 °C (market-implied 30 %) and 30 °C (21.5 %). Surface high pressure centered over central Europe and light easterly flow are limiting daytime mixing while allowing strong insolation under mostly clear skies, pushing maximums near or slightly above the late-summer climatological mean of ~26 °C. Model-to-model differences in boundary-layer moisture and timing of any weak frontal passage create the observed 1–2 °C uncertainty band that traders are pricing; later ECMWF and GFS runs this weekend will likely tighten the distribution ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$108終了日
2026/08/03マーケット開始日
Aug 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ETRecent forecasts from major models place Warsaw's peak temperature on August 3 in the 28–31 °C range, with ensemble spreads producing the tight clustering around 29 °C (market-implied 30 %) and 30 °C (21.5 %). Surface high pressure centered over central Europe and light easterly flow are limiting daytime mixing while allowing strong insolation under mostly clear skies, pushing maximums near or slightly above the late-summer climatological mean of ~26 °C. Model-to-model differences in boundary-layer moisture and timing of any weak frontal passage create the observed 1–2 °C uncertainty band that traders are pricing; later ECMWF and GFS runs this weekend will likely tighten the distribution ahead of market resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問