Forecast models from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles like ECMWF indicate a transitional pattern over Chongqing on September 10, with daytime highs near 25–30°C giving way to an overnight low influenced by increasing cloud cover, light southwest winds, and a 30–70% chance of light rain that could limit radiative cooling. This setup creates a plausible low-temperature range centered around 19–23°C, consistent with September climatology near 22°C but shifted lower by the approaching moisture and reduced insolation. Model disagreements on exact cloud timing and precipitation intensity sustain the market's closely matched probabilities across the 19°C-and-below through 22°C buckets, as traders weigh the potential for clearer skies allowing further cooling against the moderating effects of humidity and wind. Updated model runs and official briefings overnight will likely narrow the range ahead of resolution.