Trader consensus favoring "No" at 78.5% stems primarily from the absence of qualifying events through early September 2026. No Category 5 U.S. hurricane has made landfall, no VEI ≥6 volcano has erupted, no 8.5+ magnitude earthquake has occurred, and no 10 kt+ meteor strike has been recorded, per NOAA, USGS, and Smithsonian monitoring. Persistent wind shear and neutral-to-cool ENSO conditions have suppressed Atlantic hurricane intensification, while seismic catalogs show only moderate events such as the 7.7 Indonesia and 7.4 Colombia quakes. With four months remaining and typical late-season hurricane peaks offering limited windows for rapid intensification to Category 5, traders see low near-term probability of crossing any resolution threshold.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
22% 確率
$243,350 Vol.
$243,350 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
22% 確率
$243,350 Vol.
$243,350 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favoring "No" at 78.5% stems primarily from the absence of qualifying events through early September 2026. No Category 5 U.S. hurricane has made landfall, no VEI ≥6 volcano has erupted, no 8.5+ magnitude earthquake has occurred, and no 10 kt+ meteor strike has been recorded, per NOAA, USGS, and Smithsonian monitoring. Persistent wind shear and neutral-to-cool ENSO conditions have suppressed Atlantic hurricane intensification, while seismic catalogs show only moderate events such as the 7.7 Indonesia and 7.4 Colombia quakes. With four months remaining and typical late-season hurricane peaks offering limited windows for rapid intensification to Category 5, traders see low near-term probability of crossing any resolution threshold.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
マーケット開始日： Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
音量
$243,350終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favoring "No" at 78.5% stems primarily from the absence of qualifying events through early September 2026. No Category 5 U.S. hurricane has made landfall, no VEI ≥6 volcano has erupted, no 8.5+ magnitude earthquake has occurred, and no 10 kt+ meteor strike has been recorded, per NOAA, USGS, and Smithsonian monitoring. Persistent wind shear and neutral-to-cool ENSO conditions have suppressed Atlantic hurricane intensification, while seismic catalogs show only moderate events such as the 7.7 Indonesia and 7.4 Colombia quakes. With four months remaining and typical late-season hurricane peaks offering limited windows for rapid intensification to Category 5, traders see low near-term probability of crossing any resolution threshold.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
音量
$243,350終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favoring "No" at 78.5% stems primarily from the absence of qualifying events through early September 2026. No Category 5 U.S. hurricane has made landfall, no VEI ≥6 volcano has erupted, no 8.5+ magnitude earthquake has occurred, and no 10 kt+ meteor strike has been recorded, per NOAA, USGS, and Smithsonian monitoring. Persistent wind shear and neutral-to-cool ENSO conditions have suppressed Atlantic hurricane intensification, while seismic catalogs show only moderate events such as the 7.7 Indonesia and 7.4 Colombia quakes. With four months remaining and typical late-season hurricane peaks offering limited windows for rapid intensification to Category 5, traders see low near-term probability of crossing any resolution threshold.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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外部リンクに注意してください。
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