United Russia maintains a commanding position in the Novgorod Oblast Duma election due to its status as the incumbent ruling party with extensive organizational reach across single-member districts and party-list voting under the parallel system. The contest coincides with the September 18–20, 2026, unified voting day alongside national legislative elections, where partial counts show the party leading decisively amid limited registered opposition and established patterns of regional dominance. Traders reflect this through near-certain implied probabilities, consistent with United Russia's prior seat majorities and structural advantages in candidate registration and resource allocation. Late shifts remain possible only from extreme turnout anomalies or unforeseen disqualifications, though historical base rates in comparable Russian regional votes indicate such outcomes are rare.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日United Russia 99.4%
Yabloko <1%
A Just Russia <1%
New People <1%
$10,334 Vol.
$10,334 Vol.
2026/09/20
United Russia
99%
Yabloko
<1%
A Just Russia
<1%
New People
<1%
Communists of Russia
<1%
CPRF
<1%
LDPR
<1%
Party of Pensioners
<1%
Rodina
<1%
United Russia 99.4%
Yabloko <1%
A Just Russia <1%
New People <1%
$10,334 Vol.
$10,334 Vol.
2026/09/20
United Russia
$4,108 Vol.
99%
Yabloko
$1,191 Vol.
<1%
A Just Russia
$934 Vol.
<1%
New People
$737 Vol.
<1%
Communists of Russia
$731 Vol.
<1%
CPRF
$708 Vol.
<1%
LDPR
$543 Vol.
<1%
Party of Pensioners
$722 Vol.
<1%
Rodina
$661 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Duma of Novgorod Oblast, Russia are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Duma of Novgorod Oblast as a result of this election.
The number of seats will include all members of the Duma of Novgorod Oblast serving as a result of this election, including members elected in a single- or multiple-member constituency or by proportional representation, where applicable.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose party list received a greater number of valid votes in the specified region’s proportional representation system. Aggregate votes received in constituencies will have no bearing on resolution in a tie. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name as listed in this market appears first in alphabetical order.
A constituency-elected member will count towards the party they registered to contest the election with. A member elected by proportional representation will count towards the party whose list they were elected from.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. Independents will not count towards any party.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Novgorod Oblast and Russia, including the Election Commission of Novgorod Oblast and the Central Election Commission of Russia.United Russia maintains a commanding position in the Novgorod Oblast Duma election due to its status as the incumbent ruling party with extensive organizational reach across single-member districts and party-list voting under the parallel system. The contest coincides with the September 18–20, 2026, unified voting day alongside national legislative elections, where partial counts show the party leading decisively amid limited registered opposition and established patterns of regional dominance. Traders reflect this through near-certain implied probabilities, consistent with United Russia's prior seat majorities and structural advantages in candidate registration and resource allocation. Late shifts remain possible only from extreme turnout anomalies or unforeseen disqualifications, though historical base rates in comparable Russian regional votes indicate such outcomes are rare.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Duma of Novgorod Oblast, Russia are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Duma of Novgorod Oblast as a result of this election.
The number of seats will include all members of the Duma of Novgorod Oblast serving as a result of this election, including members elected in a single- or multiple-member constituency or by proportional representation, where applicable.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose party list received a greater number of valid votes in the specified region’s proportional representation system. Aggregate votes received in constituencies will have no bearing on resolution in a tie. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name as listed in this market appears first in alphabetical order.
A constituency-elected member will count towards the party they registered to contest the election with. A member elected by proportional representation will count towards the party whose list they were elected from.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. Independents will not count towards any party.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Novgorod Oblast and Russia, including the Election Commission of Novgorod Oblast and the Central Election Commission of Russia.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Duma of Novgorod Oblast as a result of this election.
The number of seats will include all members of the Duma of Novgorod Oblast serving as a result of this election, including members elected in a single- or multiple-member constituency or by proportional representation, where applicable.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose party list received a greater number of valid votes in the specified region’s proportional representation system. Aggregate votes received in constituencies will have no bearing on resolution in a tie. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name as listed in this market appears first in alphabetical order.
A constituency-elected member will count towards the party they registered to contest the election with. A member elected by proportional representation will count towards the party whose list they were elected from.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. Independents will not count towards any party.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Novgorod Oblast and Russia, including the Election Commission of Novgorod Oblast and the Central Election Commission of Russia.
マーケット開始日： Jul 28, 2026, 12:10 PM ET
音量
$10,334終了日
2026/09/20マーケット開始日
Jul 28, 2026, 12:10 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Duma of Novgorod Oblast, Russia are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Duma of Novgorod Oblast as a result of this election.
The number of seats will include all members of the Duma of Novgorod Oblast serving as a result of this election, including members elected in a single- or multiple-member constituency or by proportional representation, where applicable.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose party list received a greater number of valid votes in the specified region’s proportional representation system. Aggregate votes received in constituencies will have no bearing on resolution in a tie. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name as listed in this market appears first in alphabetical order.
A constituency-elected member will count towards the party they registered to contest the election with. A member elected by proportional representation will count towards the party whose list they were elected from.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. Independents will not count towards any party.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Novgorod Oblast and Russia, including the Election Commission of Novgorod Oblast and the Central Election Commission of Russia.United Russia maintains a commanding position in the Novgorod Oblast Duma election due to its status as the incumbent ruling party with extensive organizational reach across single-member districts and party-list voting under the parallel system. The contest coincides with the September 18–20, 2026, unified voting day alongside national legislative elections, where partial counts show the party leading decisively amid limited registered opposition and established patterns of regional dominance. Traders reflect this through near-certain implied probabilities, consistent with United Russia's prior seat majorities and structural advantages in candidate registration and resource allocation. Late shifts remain possible only from extreme turnout anomalies or unforeseen disqualifications, though historical base rates in comparable Russian regional votes indicate such outcomes are rare.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Duma of Novgorod Oblast, Russia are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Duma of Novgorod Oblast as a result of this election.
The number of seats will include all members of the Duma of Novgorod Oblast serving as a result of this election, including members elected in a single- or multiple-member constituency or by proportional representation, where applicable.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose party list received a greater number of valid votes in the specified region’s proportional representation system. Aggregate votes received in constituencies will have no bearing on resolution in a tie. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name as listed in this market appears first in alphabetical order.
A constituency-elected member will count towards the party they registered to contest the election with. A member elected by proportional representation will count towards the party whose list they were elected from.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. Independents will not count towards any party.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Novgorod Oblast and Russia, including the Election Commission of Novgorod Oblast and the Central Election Commission of Russia.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Duma of Novgorod Oblast as a result of this election.
The number of seats will include all members of the Duma of Novgorod Oblast serving as a result of this election, including members elected in a single- or multiple-member constituency or by proportional representation, where applicable.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose party list received a greater number of valid votes in the specified region’s proportional representation system. Aggregate votes received in constituencies will have no bearing on resolution in a tie. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name as listed in this market appears first in alphabetical order.
A constituency-elected member will count towards the party they registered to contest the election with. A member elected by proportional representation will count towards the party whose list they were elected from.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. Independents will not count towards any party.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Novgorod Oblast and Russia, including the Election Commission of Novgorod Oblast and the Central Election Commission of Russia.
音量
$10,334終了日
2026/09/20マーケット開始日
Jul 28, 2026, 12:10 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...United Russia maintains a commanding position in the Novgorod Oblast Duma election due to its status as the incumbent ruling party with extensive organizational reach across single-member districts and party-list voting under the parallel system. The contest coincides with the September 18–20, 2026, unified voting day alongside national legislative elections, where partial counts show the party leading decisively amid limited registered opposition and established patterns of regional dominance. Traders reflect this through near-certain implied probabilities, consistent with United Russia's prior seat majorities and structural advantages in candidate registration and resource allocation. Late shifts remain possible only from extreme turnout anomalies or unforeseen disqualifications, though historical base rates in comparable Russian regional votes indicate such outcomes are rare.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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