Incumbent Democrat Suzanne Bonamici secured her party's nomination in the May 2026 primary with roughly 87 percent of the vote against a minor challenger, setting up a November general election matchup against Republican nominee Barbara Kahl in Oregon's 1st District. The seat's D+20 partisan voting index and the incumbent's 68.6 percent margin in 2024 reflect consistent Democratic dominance in the western Portland suburbs and coastal areas. Trader consensus at 93.5 percent for the Democratic nominee aligns with the district's structural advantages and the absence of competitive opposition or late-breaking developments that typically alter outcomes in such seats. A significant scandal, health event, or national political realignment would be required to narrow the margin meaningfully before Election Day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
94%
共和党
6%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
$8,261 Vol.
94%
共和党
$1,174 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Suzanne Bonamici secured her party's nomination in the May 2026 primary with roughly 87 percent of the vote against a minor challenger, setting up a November general election matchup against Republican nominee Barbara Kahl in Oregon's 1st District. The seat's D+20 partisan voting index and the incumbent's 68.6 percent margin in 2024 reflect consistent Democratic dominance in the western Portland suburbs and coastal areas. Trader consensus at 93.5 percent for the Democratic nominee aligns with the district's structural advantages and the absence of competitive opposition or late-breaking developments that typically alter outcomes in such seats. A significant scandal, health event, or national political realignment would be required to narrow the margin meaningfully before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
音量
$9,435終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Suzanne Bonamici secured her party's nomination in the May 2026 primary with roughly 87 percent of the vote against a minor challenger, setting up a November general election matchup against Republican nominee Barbara Kahl in Oregon's 1st District. The seat's D+20 partisan voting index and the incumbent's 68.6 percent margin in 2024 reflect consistent Democratic dominance in the western Portland suburbs and coastal areas. Trader consensus at 93.5 percent for the Democratic nominee aligns with the district's structural advantages and the absence of competitive opposition or late-breaking developments that typically alter outcomes in such seats. A significant scandal, health event, or national political realignment would be required to narrow the margin meaningfully before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$9,435終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Suzanne Bonamici secured her party's nomination in the May 2026 primary with roughly 87 percent of the vote against a minor challenger, setting up a November general election matchup against Republican nominee Barbara Kahl in Oregon's 1st District. The seat's D+20 partisan voting index and the incumbent's 68.6 percent margin in 2024 reflect consistent Democratic dominance in the western Portland suburbs and coastal areas. Trader consensus at 93.5 percent for the Democratic nominee aligns with the district's structural advantages and the absence of competitive opposition or late-breaking developments that typically alter outcomes in such seats. A significant scandal, health event, or national political realignment would be required to narrow the margin meaningfully before Election Day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問