Trader consensus reflects a 93% implied probability against Tucker Carlson's arrest by May 31, driven by the absence of any formal DOJ charges or indictment following his mid-March claims of a CIA criminal referral for alleged Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA) violations. Carlson alleged agency surveillance of his texts related to pre-strike contacts with Iranian officials amid his public opposition to U.S. military actions against Iran, but Trump administration officials dismissed the concerns, and no legal proceedings have advanced in the three weeks since. Without evidence of active investigation or prosecutorial momentum, traders view significant barriers to timely action, though a surprise DOJ filing or escalated Iran-related scrutiny could shift odds before the deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/05/31
新規
新規
2026/05/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tucker Carlson is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects a 93% implied probability against Tucker Carlson's arrest by May 31, driven by the absence of any formal DOJ charges or indictment following his mid-March claims of a CIA criminal referral for alleged Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA) violations. Carlson alleged agency surveillance of his texts related to pre-strike contacts with Iranian officials amid his public opposition to U.S. military actions against Iran, but Trump administration officials dismissed the concerns, and no legal proceedings have advanced in the three weeks since. Without evidence of active investigation or prosecutorial momentum, traders view significant barriers to timely action, though a surprise DOJ filing or escalated Iran-related scrutiny could shift odds before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tucker Carlson is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Apr 7, 2026, 2:39 PM ET
音量
$1,187終了日
2026/05/31マーケット開始日
Apr 7, 2026, 2:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tucker Carlson is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects a 93% implied probability against Tucker Carlson's arrest by May 31, driven by the absence of any formal DOJ charges or indictment following his mid-March claims of a CIA criminal referral for alleged Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA) violations. Carlson alleged agency surveillance of his texts related to pre-strike contacts with Iranian officials amid his public opposition to U.S. military actions against Iran, but Trump administration officials dismissed the concerns, and no legal proceedings have advanced in the three weeks since. Without evidence of active investigation or prosecutorial momentum, traders view significant barriers to timely action, though a surprise DOJ filing or escalated Iran-related scrutiny could shift odds before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tucker Carlson is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$1,187終了日
2026/05/31マーケット開始日
Apr 7, 2026, 2:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects a 93% implied probability against Tucker Carlson's arrest by May 31, driven by the absence of any formal DOJ charges or indictment following his mid-March claims of a CIA criminal referral for alleged Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA) violations. Carlson alleged agency surveillance of his texts related to pre-strike contacts with Iranian officials amid his public opposition to U.S. military actions against Iran, but Trump administration officials dismissed the concerns, and no legal proceedings have advanced in the three weeks since. Without evidence of active investigation or prosecutorial momentum, traders view significant barriers to timely action, though a surprise DOJ filing or escalated Iran-related scrutiny could shift odds before the deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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