The U.S. Embassy in Beirut has remained operational with core diplomatic and consular staff since the February 2026 ordered departure of non-essential personnel and eligible family members, prompted by heightened regional risks tied to the Israel-Hezbollah conflict and Iran-related tensions. Subsequent months saw partial staffing reductions across multiple Middle East missions, U.S.-brokered framework agreements in June aimed at Lebanese army control in southern zones, and Israeli operations securing positions like the Ali al-Taher ridge amid stalled ceasefire implementation. As of early September 2026, security alerts continue to cite potential escalations, flight disruptions, and targeting risks, yet commercial travel options persist and no official directives have announced a full embassy evacuation. Trader assessments of low near-term probability reflect this sustained presence alongside gradual plans to restore some staffing levels, though renewed cross-border clashes or diplomatic breakdowns could alter the outlook.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$119,085 Vol.
2026/12/31
12月31日
9%
$119,085 Vol.
12月31日
$24,983 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy. The U.S. Embassy in Beirut has remained operational with core diplomatic and consular staff since the February 2026 ordered departure of non-essential personnel and eligible family members, prompted by heightened regional risks tied to the Israel-Hezbollah conflict and Iran-related tensions. Subsequent months saw partial staffing reductions across multiple Middle East missions, U.S.-brokered framework agreements in June aimed at Lebanese army control in southern zones, and Israeli operations securing positions like the Ali al-Taher ridge amid stalled ceasefire implementation. As of early September 2026, security alerts continue to cite potential escalations, flight disruptions, and targeting risks, yet commercial travel options persist and no official directives have announced a full embassy evacuation. Trader assessments of low near-term probability reflect this sustained presence alongside gradual plans to restore some staffing levels, though renewed cross-border clashes or diplomatic breakdowns could alter the outlook.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
マーケット開始日： Jun 30, 2026, 5:10 PM ET
音量
$119,085終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jun 30, 2026, 5:10 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy. The U.S. Embassy in Beirut has remained operational with core diplomatic and consular staff since the February 2026 ordered departure of non-essential personnel and eligible family members, prompted by heightened regional risks tied to the Israel-Hezbollah conflict and Iran-related tensions. Subsequent months saw partial staffing reductions across multiple Middle East missions, U.S.-brokered framework agreements in June aimed at Lebanese army control in southern zones, and Israeli operations securing positions like the Ali al-Taher ridge amid stalled ceasefire implementation. As of early September 2026, security alerts continue to cite potential escalations, flight disruptions, and targeting risks, yet commercial travel options persist and no official directives have announced a full embassy evacuation. Trader assessments of low near-term probability reflect this sustained presence alongside gradual plans to restore some staffing levels, though renewed cross-border clashes or diplomatic breakdowns could alter the outlook.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
音量
$119,085終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jun 30, 2026, 5:10 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...The U.S. Embassy in Beirut has remained operational with core diplomatic and consular staff since the February 2026 ordered departure of non-essential personnel and eligible family members, prompted by heightened regional risks tied to the Israel-Hezbollah conflict and Iran-related tensions. Subsequent months saw partial staffing reductions across multiple Middle East missions, U.S.-brokered framework agreements in June aimed at Lebanese army control in southern zones, and Israeli operations securing positions like the Ali al-Taher ridge amid stalled ceasefire implementation. As of early September 2026, security alerts continue to cite potential escalations, flight disruptions, and targeting risks, yet commercial travel options persist and no official directives have announced a full embassy evacuation. Trader assessments of low near-term probability reflect this sustained presence alongside gradual plans to restore some staffing levels, though renewed cross-border clashes or diplomatic breakdowns could alter the outlook.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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