**US-Cuba tensions have escalated through a U.S. fuel blockade, sanctions on Cuban leaders, and stepped-up surveillance flights since early 2026, yet no direct military clash has occurred.** The Trump administration has combined economic pressure—including tariffs on third-country oil suppliers and an indictment of Raúl Castro—with naval deployments in the Caribbean and public warnings from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth against Cuban arms acquisitions. Pentagon briefings in July examined contingency options such as air assaults, but officials emphasized these remain planning exercises without presidential authorization. Cuba has responded with prisoner releases and diplomatic overtures while preparing defenses, and reports note ongoing back-channel talks alongside the pressure campaign. With the year more than halfway complete and no kinetic engagement to date, traders assign 74% probability to “No,” viewing sustained economic and diplomatic measures as the dominant U.S. approach absent a major new trigger before December 31.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$237,273 Vol.
$237,273 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$237,273 Vol.
$237,273 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**US-Cuba tensions have escalated through a U.S. fuel blockade, sanctions on Cuban leaders, and stepped-up surveillance flights since early 2026, yet no direct military clash has occurred.** The Trump administration has combined economic pressure—including tariffs on third-country oil suppliers and an indictment of Raúl Castro—with naval deployments in the Caribbean and public warnings from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth against Cuban arms acquisitions. Pentagon briefings in July examined contingency options such as air assaults, but officials emphasized these remain planning exercises without presidential authorization. Cuba has responded with prisoner releases and diplomatic overtures while preparing defenses, and reports note ongoing back-channel talks alongside the pressure campaign. With the year more than halfway complete and no kinetic engagement to date, traders assign 74% probability to “No,” viewing sustained economic and diplomatic measures as the dominant U.S. approach absent a major new trigger before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
音量
$237,273終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**US-Cuba tensions have escalated through a U.S. fuel blockade, sanctions on Cuban leaders, and stepped-up surveillance flights since early 2026, yet no direct military clash has occurred.** The Trump administration has combined economic pressure—including tariffs on third-country oil suppliers and an indictment of Raúl Castro—with naval deployments in the Caribbean and public warnings from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth against Cuban arms acquisitions. Pentagon briefings in July examined contingency options such as air assaults, but officials emphasized these remain planning exercises without presidential authorization. Cuba has responded with prisoner releases and diplomatic overtures while preparing defenses, and reports note ongoing back-channel talks alongside the pressure campaign. With the year more than halfway complete and no kinetic engagement to date, traders assign 74% probability to “No,” viewing sustained economic and diplomatic measures as the dominant U.S. approach absent a major new trigger before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$237,273終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**US-Cuba tensions have escalated through a U.S. fuel blockade, sanctions on Cuban leaders, and stepped-up surveillance flights since early 2026, yet no direct military clash has occurred.** The Trump administration has combined economic pressure—including tariffs on third-country oil suppliers and an indictment of Raúl Castro—with naval deployments in the Caribbean and public warnings from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth against Cuban arms acquisitions. Pentagon briefings in July examined contingency options such as air assaults, but officials emphasized these remain planning exercises without presidential authorization. Cuba has responded with prisoner releases and diplomatic overtures while preparing defenses, and reports note ongoing back-channel talks alongside the pressure campaign. With the year more than halfway complete and no kinetic engagement to date, traders assign 74% probability to “No,” viewing sustained economic and diplomatic measures as the dominant U.S. approach absent a major new trigger before December 31.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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