The US has pursued a maximum-pressure campaign against Cuba through a January 2026 fuel blockade via executive order, expanded sanctions on oil suppliers and regime-linked entities, and indictments such as that of Raúl Castro, while prioritizing economic coercion and diplomatic channels for regime change by year-end. Military posturing, including heightened reconnaissance flights, carrier presence in the Caribbean, and contingency planning, has occurred alongside these measures but without large-scale troop deployments or offensive operations. Recent August sanctions targeting arms procurement networks further signal a preference for non-kinetic tools amid competing demands from other theaters. Cuba has engaged in talks, released prisoners, and faced acute shortages, reinforcing trader views that direct military clash remains unlikely before December 31.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
25% 確率
$237,937 Vol.
$237,937 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
25% 確率
$237,937 Vol.
$237,937 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The US has pursued a maximum-pressure campaign against Cuba through a January 2026 fuel blockade via executive order, expanded sanctions on oil suppliers and regime-linked entities, and indictments such as that of Raúl Castro, while prioritizing economic coercion and diplomatic channels for regime change by year-end. Military posturing, including heightened reconnaissance flights, carrier presence in the Caribbean, and contingency planning, has occurred alongside these measures but without large-scale troop deployments or offensive operations. Recent August sanctions targeting arms procurement networks further signal a preference for non-kinetic tools amid competing demands from other theaters. Cuba has engaged in talks, released prisoners, and faced acute shortages, reinforcing trader views that direct military clash remains unlikely before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
音量
$237,937終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The US has pursued a maximum-pressure campaign against Cuba through a January 2026 fuel blockade via executive order, expanded sanctions on oil suppliers and regime-linked entities, and indictments such as that of Raúl Castro, while prioritizing economic coercion and diplomatic channels for regime change by year-end. Military posturing, including heightened reconnaissance flights, carrier presence in the Caribbean, and contingency planning, has occurred alongside these measures but without large-scale troop deployments or offensive operations. Recent August sanctions targeting arms procurement networks further signal a preference for non-kinetic tools amid competing demands from other theaters. Cuba has engaged in talks, released prisoners, and faced acute shortages, reinforcing trader views that direct military clash remains unlikely before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$237,937終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The US has pursued a maximum-pressure campaign against Cuba through a January 2026 fuel blockade via executive order, expanded sanctions on oil suppliers and regime-linked entities, and indictments such as that of Raúl Castro, while prioritizing economic coercion and diplomatic channels for regime change by year-end. Military posturing, including heightened reconnaissance flights, carrier presence in the Caribbean, and contingency planning, has occurred alongside these measures but without large-scale troop deployments or offensive operations. Recent August sanctions targeting arms procurement networks further signal a preference for non-kinetic tools amid competing demands from other theaters. Cuba has engaged in talks, released prisoners, and faced acute shortages, reinforcing trader views that direct military clash remains unlikely before December 31.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問