Incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Warner’s re-election bid for Virginia’s Class II seat drives the strong market positioning, with nonpartisan ratings classifying the contest as solid or safe Democratic and recent polling showing him ahead of likely Republican opponents by 20 points or more. Warner benefits from established name recognition, substantial fundraising, and Virginia’s recent voting patterns favoring Democrats in federal races. The August 4 primary cycle has produced limited Democratic opposition, allowing him to focus resources on the general election against Republican primary contenders including Bert Mizusawa. Trader consensus aligns with these fundamentals, assigning the Republican nominee only single-digit implied probability. Late developments that could narrow the gap include a national Republican wave altering turnout dynamics, an unexpected primary upset producing a high-profile challenger, or unforeseen issues affecting Warner’s campaign. The November 3 general election remains the resolution date.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
93%
共和党
6%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
$8,033 Vol.
93%
共和党
$1,121 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Warner’s re-election bid for Virginia’s Class II seat drives the strong market positioning, with nonpartisan ratings classifying the contest as solid or safe Democratic and recent polling showing him ahead of likely Republican opponents by 20 points or more. Warner benefits from established name recognition, substantial fundraising, and Virginia’s recent voting patterns favoring Democrats in federal races. The August 4 primary cycle has produced limited Democratic opposition, allowing him to focus resources on the general election against Republican primary contenders including Bert Mizusawa.
Trader consensus aligns with these fundamentals, assigning the Republican nominee only single-digit implied probability. Late developments that could narrow the gap include a national Republican wave altering turnout dynamics, an unexpected primary upset producing a high-profile challenger, or unforeseen issues affecting Warner’s campaign. The November 3 general election remains the resolution date.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
マーケット開始日： Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ET
音量
$9,154終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Warner’s re-election bid for Virginia’s Class II seat drives the strong market positioning, with nonpartisan ratings classifying the contest as solid or safe Democratic and recent polling showing him ahead of likely Republican opponents by 20 points or more. Warner benefits from established name recognition, substantial fundraising, and Virginia’s recent voting patterns favoring Democrats in federal races. The August 4 primary cycle has produced limited Democratic opposition, allowing him to focus resources on the general election against Republican primary contenders including Bert Mizusawa.
Trader consensus aligns with these fundamentals, assigning the Republican nominee only single-digit implied probability. Late developments that could narrow the gap include a national Republican wave altering turnout dynamics, an unexpected primary upset producing a high-profile challenger, or unforeseen issues affecting Warner’s campaign. The November 3 general election remains the resolution date.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
音量
$9,154終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Warner’s re-election bid for Virginia’s Class II seat drives the strong market positioning, with nonpartisan ratings classifying the contest as solid or safe Democratic and recent polling showing him ahead of likely Republican opponents by 20 points or more. Warner benefits from established name recognition, substantial fundraising, and Virginia’s recent voting patterns favoring Democrats in federal races. The August 4 primary cycle has produced limited Democratic opposition, allowing him to focus resources on the general election against Republican primary contenders including Bert Mizusawa. Trader consensus aligns with these fundamentals, assigning the Republican nominee only single-digit implied probability. Late developments that could narrow the gap include a national Republican wave altering turnout dynamics, an unexpected primary upset producing a high-profile challenger, or unforeseen issues affecting Warner’s campaign. The November 3 general election remains the resolution date.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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