Short-range model guidance from agencies including the Korea Meteorological Administration and Brazilian meteorological services, alongside global ensembles like ECMWF and GFS, currently drives trader positioning for measurable precipitation (typically ≥0.01 inch or 0.25 mm at official gauges) on August 9, 2026. In Seoul, late-summer monsoon moisture supports scattered thunderstorm potential with 40-60% probabilities in recent runs, though steering patterns could shift amounts. São Paulo’s dry season climatology favors lower odds, with most deterministic guidance showing <20% chance of showers from maritime flow, consistent with historical August baselines of 3-9 wet days. Key upcoming updates include the next 00Z and 12Z model cycles plus local radar/surface observations through the weekend, which can rapidly alter implied probabilities given convective uncertainty.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月9日はどこで雨が降りますか？
8月9日はどこで雨が降りますか？
シンガポール
50%
ジャカルタ
50%
ムンバイ
50%
マニラ
51%
東京
50%
ラゴス
51%
バンコク
50%
香港
50%
ソウル（インチョン）
51%
台北
50%
コロンボ
50%
ダッカ
50%
クアラルンプール
50%
ロンドン
49%
ドバイ
27%
サンパウロ
51%
シドニー
51%
$3 Vol.
シンガポール
50%
ジャカルタ
50%
ムンバイ
50%
マニラ
51%
東京
50%
ラゴス
51%
バンコク
50%
香港
50%
ソウル（インチョン）
51%
台北
50%
コロンボ
50%
ダッカ
50%
クアラルンプール
50%
ロンドン
49%
ドバイ
27%
サンパウロ
51%
シドニー
51%
Measurable precipitation means 0.01 inches or more as reported by the Weather Underground station page for the city.
A report of trace ("T") does not qualify.
Resolution is based on the station's first published precipitation figure for the day. Subsequent revisions or corrections to the published data will not be considered; the first published value is final. If no figure has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to "No".
マーケット開始日： Aug 6, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Measurable precipitation means 0.01 inches or more as reported by the Weather Underground station page for the city.
A report of trace ("T") does not qualify.
Resolution is based on the station's first published precipitation figure for the day. Subsequent revisions or corrections to the published data will not be considered; the first published value is final. If no figure has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to "No".
Short-range model guidance from agencies including the Korea Meteorological Administration and Brazilian meteorological services, alongside global ensembles like ECMWF and GFS, currently drives trader positioning for measurable precipitation (typically ≥0.01 inch or 0.25 mm at official gauges) on August 9, 2026. In Seoul, late-summer monsoon moisture supports scattered thunderstorm potential with 40-60% probabilities in recent runs, though steering patterns could shift amounts. São Paulo’s dry season climatology favors lower odds, with most deterministic guidance showing <20% chance of showers from maritime flow, consistent with historical August baselines of 3-9 wet days. Key upcoming updates include the next 00Z and 12Z model cycles plus local radar/surface observations through the weekend, which can rapidly alter implied probabilities given convective uncertainty.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問