Current forecast models from the National Weather Service indicate a moderate marine layer influence and onshore flow holding peak temperatures in Los Angeles near 78–79°F on August 6, supporting the 57.5% market-implied probability for that bin. This aligns with typical early-August climatology for the Los Angeles basin, where Pacific sea-surface temperatures and coastal stratus moderate extremes unless offshore winds or high-pressure ridging develop. Ensemble guidance shows limited day-to-day variability, with only modest warming potential if the marine layer thins overnight, explaining the secondary 35.5% weighting on 76–77°F and the low odds on bins above 80°F. Updated model runs tomorrow morning will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月6日のロサンゼルスの最高気温は？
8月6日のロサンゼルスの最高気温は？
78〜79°F 56%
76〜77°F 36%
80～81°F 5%
74〜75°F 4%
新規
$14,175 Vol.
新規
$14,175 Vol.
2026/08/06
69°F以下
<1%
70〜71°F
<1%
72〜73°F
<1%
74〜75°F
4%
76〜77°F
36%
78〜79°F
56%
80～81°F
5%
82〜83°F
1%
84～85°F
<1%
86～87°F
1%
88°F以上
<1%
78〜79°F 56%
76〜77°F 36%
80～81°F 5%
74〜75°F 4%
新規
$14,175 Vol.
新規
$14,175 Vol.
2026/08/06
69°F以下
$541 Vol.
<1%
70〜71°F
$634 Vol.
<1%
72〜73°F
$440 Vol.
<1%
74〜75°F
$647 Vol.
4%
76〜77°F
$1,960 Vol.
36%
78〜79°F
$4,647 Vol.
56%
80～81°F
$574 Vol.
5%
82〜83°F
$359 Vol.
1%
84～85°F
$636 Vol.
<1%
86～87°F
$1,900 Vol.
1%
88°F以上
$1,835 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from the National Weather Service indicate a moderate marine layer influence and onshore flow holding peak temperatures in Los Angeles near 78–79°F on August 6, supporting the 57.5% market-implied probability for that bin. This aligns with typical early-August climatology for the Los Angeles basin, where Pacific sea-surface temperatures and coastal stratus moderate extremes unless offshore winds or high-pressure ridging develop. Ensemble guidance shows limited day-to-day variability, with only modest warming potential if the marine layer thins overnight, explaining the secondary 35.5% weighting on 76–77°F and the low odds on bins above 80°F. Updated model runs tomorrow morning will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Aug 4, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
音量
$14,175終了日
2026/08/06マーケット開始日
Aug 4, 2026, 9:03 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from the National Weather Service indicate a moderate marine layer influence and onshore flow holding peak temperatures in Los Angeles near 78–79°F on August 6, supporting the 57.5% market-implied probability for that bin. This aligns with typical early-August climatology for the Los Angeles basin, where Pacific sea-surface temperatures and coastal stratus moderate extremes unless offshore winds or high-pressure ridging develop. Ensemble guidance shows limited day-to-day variability, with only modest warming potential if the marine layer thins overnight, explaining the secondary 35.5% weighting on 76–77°F and the low odds on bins above 80°F. Updated model runs tomorrow morning will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$14,175終了日
2026/08/06マーケット開始日
Aug 4, 2026, 9:03 PM ETCurrent forecast models from the National Weather Service indicate a moderate marine layer influence and onshore flow holding peak temperatures in Los Angeles near 78–79°F on August 6, supporting the 57.5% market-implied probability for that bin. This aligns with typical early-August climatology for the Los Angeles basin, where Pacific sea-surface temperatures and coastal stratus moderate extremes unless offshore winds or high-pressure ridging develop. Ensemble guidance shows limited day-to-day variability, with only modest warming potential if the marine layer thins overnight, explaining the secondary 35.5% weighting on 76–77°F and the low odds on bins above 80°F. Updated model runs tomorrow morning will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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