Recent model consensus from Météo-France and supporting guidance points to a post-heatwave cooldown across northern France, with clear or partly cloudy skies on August 7 enabling stronger nighttime radiational cooling. This setup favors minimum temperatures near or slightly below the long-term August average of 14–15 °C, as indicated by the market’s heavy weighting toward 12 °C (51 %) and 13 °C (28 %). Overnight lows in the 11–14 °C range align with current ensemble guidance showing a modest northerly flow and dew points that support efficient heat loss after sunset. Earlier in the week, elevated readings from a heatwave raised baseline soil and boundary-layer temperatures, but the abrupt shift to calmer, clearer conditions has pulled implied probabilities sharply toward the cooler outcomes observed in the past 48 hours. Updated short-range forecasts and any late-model runs emphasizing wind or cloud cover will be the next key inputs likely to refine these market-implied odds before resolution.