Recent Météo-France guidance and supporting ensemble models position 25–26 °C as the most probable maximum in Paris on August 6, reflecting a post-heatwave cooldown with largely sunny skies, light winds, and a morning low near 17 °C. Atlantic air advection and reduced insolation relative to late-July peaks have suppressed daytime warming, keeping values within normal early-August climatology rather than the 30 °C+ extremes seen in June. Trader probabilities (48.5 % at 25 °C, 31.5 % at 26 °C) align closely with this consensus, while lower odds for 27 °C or above capture residual model spread and the small chance of stronger subsidence. Updated short-range runs and official vigilance maps remain the key near-term catalysts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月6日のパリの最高気温は?
25°C 49%
26°C 35%
24°C 10%
27°C 5%
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
2%
23°C
4%
24°C
10%
25°C
49%
26°C
35%
27°C
5%
28°C
2%
29°C
1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
25°C 49%
26°C 35%
24°C 10%
27°C 5%
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
2%
23°C
4%
24°C
10%
25°C
49%
26°C
35%
27°C
5%
28°C
2%
29°C
1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日: Aug 4, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent Météo-France guidance and supporting ensemble models position 25–26 °C as the most probable maximum in Paris on August 6, reflecting a post-heatwave cooldown with largely sunny skies, light winds, and a morning low near 17 °C. Atlantic air advection and reduced insolation relative to late-July peaks have suppressed daytime warming, keeping values within normal early-August climatology rather than the 30 °C+ extremes seen in June. Trader probabilities (48.5 % at 25 °C, 31.5 % at 26 °C) align closely with this consensus, while lower odds for 27 °C or above capture residual model spread and the small chance of stronger subsidence. Updated short-range runs and official vigilance maps remain the key near-term catalysts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問