Latest ensemble forecasts from major models show a tight clustering of possible maximum temperatures around 33–34°C at the Hong Kong Observatory, explaining the near-even market split between those two outcomes. Daytime heating will depend on the timing and coverage of showers associated with the monsoon trough, which can suppress peaks by 1–2°C through increased cloud cover and evaporative cooling, versus clearer intervals that allow readings to reach the upper end of the range. Historical August maxima at the site average near 31–32°C, providing context for the modest upward bias implied by current guidance. Updated HKO bulletins and the next model cycle tomorrow morning will refine the final resolution criteria ahead of the daily maximum observation window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月7日の香港の最高気温は?
34°C 42%
33°C 34%
35°C 14%
32°C 8%
$15,135 Vol.
$15,135 Vol.
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
8%
33°C
34%
34°C
42%
35°C
14%
36°C
5%
37°C
1%
38°C
<1%
39°C or higher
<1%
34°C 42%
33°C 34%
35°C 14%
32°C 8%
$15,135 Vol.
$15,135 Vol.
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
8%
33°C
34%
34°C
42%
35°C
14%
36°C
5%
37°C
1%
38°C
<1%
39°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: Aug 5, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from major models show a tight clustering of possible maximum temperatures around 33–34°C at the Hong Kong Observatory, explaining the near-even market split between those two outcomes. Daytime heating will depend on the timing and coverage of showers associated with the monsoon trough, which can suppress peaks by 1–2°C through increased cloud cover and evaporative cooling, versus clearer intervals that allow readings to reach the upper end of the range. Historical August maxima at the site average near 31–32°C, providing context for the modest upward bias implied by current guidance. Updated HKO bulletins and the next model cycle tomorrow morning will refine the final resolution criteria ahead of the daily maximum observation window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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