Trader consensus around 31–32°C for Chengdu’s August 6 high reflects the latest numerical weather prediction runs showing a subtropical ridge maintaining warm, humid conditions over the Sichuan Basin, with daytime maxima near 31–34°C (88–93°F) amid scattered thunderstorms. Cloud cover and convective showers—common in the region’s summer monsoon regime—introduce variability by limiting solar heating or triggering brief cooling outflows, keeping the distribution tight across adjacent temperature bins. Official guidance from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration highlights typical August baselines of 30–34°C highs, with model spread driven by the precise timing and intensity of afternoon convection rather than large-scale shifts. Updated short-range forecasts expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities before market resolution.