Latest ensemble forecasts from AEMET and ECMWF indicate a stable summer high-pressure pattern over central Spain, with Madrid’s maximum temperature on August 6 most likely reaching 34–36 °C under clear skies and light winds. Ensemble spread and minor differences in boundary-layer moisture and afternoon mixing explain why traders assign nearly equal weight to 37 °C (51.5 %) versus 38 °C (42.0 %), while sharply discounting lower or higher outcomes. Official AEMET guidance currently peaks at 34 °C for the afternoon window, but model runs issued within the next 12–18 hours will refine the thermal profile and could shift implied probabilities before the market resolves.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月6日のマドリードの最高気温は?
37℃ 52%
38℃ 42%
36℃ 4%
39℃ 3%
$22,600 Vol.
$22,600 Vol.
33℃以下
<1%
34℃
<1%
35℃
<1%
36℃
4%
37℃
52%
38℃
42%
39℃
3%
40℃
<1%
41°C
<1%
42°C
<1%
43℃以上
<1%
37℃ 52%
38℃ 42%
36℃ 4%
39℃ 3%
$22,600 Vol.
$22,600 Vol.
33℃以下
<1%
34℃
<1%
35℃
<1%
36℃
4%
37℃
52%
38℃
42%
39℃
3%
40℃
<1%
41°C
<1%
42°C
<1%
43℃以上
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日: Aug 4, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Latest ensemble forecasts from AEMET and ECMWF indicate a stable summer high-pressure pattern over central Spain, with Madrid’s maximum temperature on August 6 most likely reaching 34–36 °C under clear skies and light winds. Ensemble spread and minor differences in boundary-layer moisture and afternoon mixing explain why traders assign nearly equal weight to 37 °C (51.5 %) versus 38 °C (42.0 %), while sharply discounting lower or higher outcomes. Official AEMET guidance currently peaks at 34 °C for the afternoon window, but model runs issued within the next 12–18 hours will refine the thermal profile and could shift implied probabilities before the market resolves.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日



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