Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate a cloudy August 6 with a projected high of 32°C in Tokyo, aligning with the market's tight clustering around 32–33°C outcomes. A strengthened Pacific High driving subsidence and southerly flow has sustained above-normal summer temperatures across Honshu, though increasing cloud cover and scattered showers may cap afternoon peaks by limiting insolation. Historical August averages near 31–32°C, combined with ENSO-neutral conditions and gradual seasonal cooling, support this narrow range while allowing modest upside if clearer skies develop. Updated model runs and JMA briefings over the next 24 hours remain the key variables for traders assessing resolution thresholds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月6日の東京の最高気温は?
32°C 39%
33°C 31%
31°C 15%
34°C 9%
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
2%
30°C
3%
31°C
15%
32°C
39%
33°C
31%
34°C
9%
35°C
3%
36°C or higher
<1%
32°C 39%
33°C 31%
31°C 15%
34°C 9%
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
2%
30°C
3%
31°C
15%
32°C
39%
33°C
31%
34°C
9%
35°C
3%
36°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日: Aug 4, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate a cloudy August 6 with a projected high of 32°C in Tokyo, aligning with the market's tight clustering around 32–33°C outcomes. A strengthened Pacific High driving subsidence and southerly flow has sustained above-normal summer temperatures across Honshu, though increasing cloud cover and scattered showers may cap afternoon peaks by limiting insolation. Historical August averages near 31–32°C, combined with ENSO-neutral conditions and gradual seasonal cooling, support this narrow range while allowing modest upside if clearer skies develop. Updated model runs and JMA briefings over the next 24 hours remain the key variables for traders assessing resolution thresholds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日

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