Recent short-range forecasts from agencies like AEMET and the Met Office indicate Madrid highs near 35°C on August 5 amid post-heatwave moderation after Spain’s intense July conditions. Ensemble model spreads from ECMWF highlight uncertainty in peak daytime heating driven by subtle variations in surface pressure gradients, northerly wind advection, and urban heat island effects, which explain why traders assign roughly equal weight to 35°C and 36°C outcomes. Historical August baselines near 33°C and ongoing dry soils that enhance sensible heat flux further support the tight clustering around these values while limiting upside risk for 37°C or higher. Updated model runs in the next 48 hours will likely refine the market-implied odds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月5日のマドリードの最高気温は？
8月5日のマドリードの最高気温は？
36°C 52%
35°C 34%
37°C 12%
34°C 6%
新規
新規
2026/08/05
31°C or below
1%
32°C
1%
33°C
3%
34°C
6%
35°C
34%
36°C
52%
37°C
12%
38°C
2%
39°C
2%
40°C
1%
41°C or higher
<1%
36°C 52%
35°C 34%
37°C 12%
34°C 6%
新規
新規
2026/08/05
31°C or below
$0 Vol.
1%
32°C
$10 Vol.
1%
33°C
$44 Vol.
3%
34°C
$66 Vol.
6%
35°C
$201 Vol.
34%
36°C
$265 Vol.
52%
37°C
$111 Vol.
12%
38°C
$78 Vol.
2%
39°C
$0 Vol.
2%
40°C
$27 Vol.
1%
41°C or higher
$27 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecasts from agencies like AEMET and the Met Office indicate Madrid highs near 35°C on August 5 amid post-heatwave moderation after Spain’s intense July conditions. Ensemble model spreads from ECMWF highlight uncertainty in peak daytime heating driven by subtle variations in surface pressure gradients, northerly wind advection, and urban heat island effects, which explain why traders assign roughly equal weight to 35°C and 36°C outcomes. Historical August baselines near 33°C and ongoing dry soils that enhance sensible heat flux further support the tight clustering around these values while limiting upside risk for 37°C or higher. Updated model runs in the next 48 hours will likely refine the market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Aug 3, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
音量
$829終了日
2026/08/05マーケット開始日
Aug 3, 2026, 12:06 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecasts from agencies like AEMET and the Met Office indicate Madrid highs near 35°C on August 5 amid post-heatwave moderation after Spain’s intense July conditions. Ensemble model spreads from ECMWF highlight uncertainty in peak daytime heating driven by subtle variations in surface pressure gradients, northerly wind advection, and urban heat island effects, which explain why traders assign roughly equal weight to 35°C and 36°C outcomes. Historical August baselines near 33°C and ongoing dry soils that enhance sensible heat flux further support the tight clustering around these values while limiting upside risk for 37°C or higher. Updated model runs in the next 48 hours will likely refine the market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$829終了日
2026/08/05マーケット開始日
Aug 3, 2026, 12:06 AM ETRecent short-range forecasts from agencies like AEMET and the Met Office indicate Madrid highs near 35°C on August 5 amid post-heatwave moderation after Spain’s intense July conditions. Ensemble model spreads from ECMWF highlight uncertainty in peak daytime heating driven by subtle variations in surface pressure gradients, northerly wind advection, and urban heat island effects, which explain why traders assign roughly equal weight to 35°C and 36°C outcomes. Historical August baselines near 33°C and ongoing dry soils that enhance sensible heat flux further support the tight clustering around these values while limiting upside risk for 37°C or higher. Updated model runs in the next 48 hours will likely refine the market-implied odds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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