Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 96.8% implied probability for Alberta joining the United States, driven by insurmountable constitutional barriers under Canadian law requiring federal consent and complex U.S. congressional approval for statehood or annexation—precedents like Quebec's failed referendums underscore the improbability. Recent legal setbacks, including a April 10 court ruling pausing signature validation for the Stay Free Alberta independence petition and First Nations challenges to the referendum question, have stalled separatist momentum despite claims of meeting the 177,732-signature threshold in late March. Polls show only 29-31% support for even separation from Canada, with no U.S. diplomatic engagement. Shifts could arise from an unlikely referendum passage by October 2026 followed by bilateral negotiations, but such scenarios face steep institutional hurdles.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
新規
新規
2026/12/31
はい
新規
新規
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 96.8% implied probability for Alberta joining the United States, driven by insurmountable constitutional barriers under Canadian law requiring federal consent and complex U.S. congressional approval for statehood or annexation—precedents like Quebec's failed referendums underscore the improbability. Recent legal setbacks, including a April 10 court ruling pausing signature validation for the Stay Free Alberta independence petition and First Nations challenges to the referendum question, have stalled separatist momentum despite claims of meeting the 177,732-signature threshold in late March. Polls show only 29-31% support for even separation from Canada, with no U.S. diplomatic engagement. Shifts could arise from an unlikely referendum passage by October 2026 followed by bilateral negotiations, but such scenarios face steep institutional hurdles.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
マーケット開始日： Feb 6, 2026, 5:03 PM ET
音量
$3,849終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Feb 6, 2026, 5:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 96.8% implied probability for Alberta joining the United States, driven by insurmountable constitutional barriers under Canadian law requiring federal consent and complex U.S. congressional approval for statehood or annexation—precedents like Quebec's failed referendums underscore the improbability. Recent legal setbacks, including a April 10 court ruling pausing signature validation for the Stay Free Alberta independence petition and First Nations challenges to the referendum question, have stalled separatist momentum despite claims of meeting the 177,732-signature threshold in late March. Polls show only 29-31% support for even separation from Canada, with no U.S. diplomatic engagement. Shifts could arise from an unlikely referendum passage by October 2026 followed by bilateral negotiations, but such scenarios face steep institutional hurdles.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
音量
$3,849終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Feb 6, 2026, 5:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 96.8% implied probability for Alberta joining the United States, driven by insurmountable constitutional barriers under Canadian law requiring federal consent and complex U.S. congressional approval for statehood or annexation—precedents like Quebec's failed referendums underscore the improbability. Recent legal setbacks, including a April 10 court ruling pausing signature validation for the Stay Free Alberta independence petition and First Nations challenges to the referendum question, have stalled separatist momentum despite claims of meeting the 177,732-signature threshold in late March. Polls show only 29-31% support for even separation from Canada, with no U.S. diplomatic engagement. Shifts could arise from an unlikely referendum passage by October 2026 followed by bilateral negotiations, but such scenarios face steep institutional hurdles.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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