Alberta's October 19, 2026 referendum includes a question on whether the province should begin the constitutional process toward a future binding vote on separation from Canada. Recent Ipsos polling shows only 19% support for advancing that step, down from 28% earlier in 2026, with direct separation support near 18%. Premier Danielle Smith's government framed the ballot as testing sovereignty within a united Canada after citizen petitions triggered the vote. Legal challenges from First Nations over treaty rights and procedural barriers under the Clarity Act and federal constitution further limit prospects for any near-term independence outcome. Traders price the low likelihood of an affirmative result on separation given these polling levels, constitutional constraints, and the indirect nature of the current question.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
6% 確率
$253,950 Vol.
$253,950 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
6% 確率
$253,950 Vol.
$253,950 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Alberta's October 19, 2026 referendum includes a question on whether the province should begin the constitutional process toward a future binding vote on separation from Canada. Recent Ipsos polling shows only 19% support for advancing that step, down from 28% earlier in 2026, with direct separation support near 18%. Premier Danielle Smith's government framed the ballot as testing sovereignty within a united Canada after citizen petitions triggered the vote. Legal challenges from First Nations over treaty rights and procedural barriers under the Clarity Act and federal constitution further limit prospects for any near-term independence outcome. Traders price the low likelihood of an affirmative result on separation given these polling levels, constitutional constraints, and the indirect nature of the current question.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jan 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ET
音量
$253,950終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Alberta's October 19, 2026 referendum includes a question on whether the province should begin the constitutional process toward a future binding vote on separation from Canada. Recent Ipsos polling shows only 19% support for advancing that step, down from 28% earlier in 2026, with direct separation support near 18%. Premier Danielle Smith's government framed the ballot as testing sovereignty within a united Canada after citizen petitions triggered the vote. Legal challenges from First Nations over treaty rights and procedural barriers under the Clarity Act and federal constitution further limit prospects for any near-term independence outcome. Traders price the low likelihood of an affirmative result on separation given these polling levels, constitutional constraints, and the indirect nature of the current question.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$253,950終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Alberta's October 19, 2026 referendum includes a question on whether the province should begin the constitutional process toward a future binding vote on separation from Canada. Recent Ipsos polling shows only 19% support for advancing that step, down from 28% earlier in 2026, with direct separation support near 18%. Premier Danielle Smith's government framed the ballot as testing sovereignty within a united Canada after citizen petitions triggered the vote. Legal challenges from First Nations over treaty rights and procedural barriers under the Clarity Act and federal constitution further limit prospects for any near-term independence outcome. Traders price the low likelihood of an affirmative result on separation given these polling levels, constitutional constraints, and the indirect nature of the current question.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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