Tight U.S. cattle supplies, with the national herd at a 75-year low of 86.2 million head as of January 2026, represent the dominant driver behind elevated ground beef prices. Retail averages reached $6.90 per pound in April 2026 amid USDA forecasts for 6.9% wholesale beef price gains and overall beef inflation of 10% or more this year. Limited domestic production—projected down roughly 1-2%—combined with robust consumer demand and heavier reliance on lean-trim imports continues to support values, though affordability pressures may temper gains in the second half. The cattle cycle points to minimal herd expansion before 2027-2028, keeping volatility elevated ahead of summer grilling demand and any shifts in import or feed-cost dynamics.