Recent model consensus shows Super Typhoon Dolphin tracking west-northwest under the influence of a subtropical ridge, positioning it to approach Japan's Ogasawara Islands as a strong typhoon by early August before potentially nearing the Nansei (Ryukyu) Islands. This creates the near-even 50.5% implied probability for a Japan hit, as the storm has already weakened from peak Category 5 strength due to an eyewall replacement cycle and reduced ocean heat content. Key uncertainties include model spread in steering patterns, exact latitude shifts, and whether Dolphin maintains sufficient intensity for landfall criteria on Japanese territory. Updated JTWC and JMA forecasts over the next 48–72 hours, plus new ECMWF and GFS runs, will likely clarify the track and tip market odds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日スーパータイフーンドルフィンは日本を襲うのでしょうか？
スーパータイフーンドルフィンは日本を襲うのでしょうか？
はい
$38,901 Vol.
$38,901 Vol.
2026/08/16
はい
$38,901 Vol.
$38,901 Vol.
2026/08/16
This market resolves "Yes" if the center of Super Typhoon Dolphin's circulation physically crosses the coastline of any Japanese territory (including Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, and all main islands) on or before August 15, 2026. Resolution is determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the storm over Japanese land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming the storm hitting Japanese territory. The system's classification is determined by the single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing. Once that advisory fixes classification at the time of impact, no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on Japanese land, the market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the market resolves "Yes." A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source. In all cases, the classification is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This is a purely geographic criterion: the storm's center must pass over Japanese land, regardless of whether JMA formally designates the event as "landfall" or "passage." The most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing must classify Dolphin as a tropical cyclone (tropical depression or higher). If that advisory classifies the system as extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, the crossing does not count and the market will resolve to "No".
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin has been declared extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed on or before August 15 without having made landfall on Japanese territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.Recent model consensus shows Super Typhoon Dolphin tracking west-northwest under the influence of a subtropical ridge, positioning it to approach Japan's Ogasawara Islands as a strong typhoon by early August before potentially nearing the Nansei (Ryukyu) Islands. This creates the near-even 50.5% implied probability for a Japan hit, as the storm has already weakened from peak Category 5 strength due to an eyewall replacement cycle and reduced ocean heat content. Key uncertainties include model spread in steering patterns, exact latitude shifts, and whether Dolphin maintains sufficient intensity for landfall criteria on Japanese territory. Updated JTWC and JMA forecasts over the next 48–72 hours, plus new ECMWF and GFS runs, will likely clarify the track and tip market odds.
This market resolves "Yes" if the center of Super Typhoon Dolphin's circulation physically crosses the coastline of any Japanese territory (including Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, and all main islands) on or before August 15, 2026. Resolution is determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the storm over Japanese land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming the storm hitting Japanese territory. The system's classification is determined by the single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing. Once that advisory fixes classification at the time of impact, no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on Japanese land, the market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the market resolves "Yes." A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source. In all cases, the classification is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This is a purely geographic criterion: the storm's center must pass over Japanese land, regardless of whether JMA formally designates the event as "landfall" or "passage." The most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing must classify Dolphin as a tropical cyclone (tropical depression or higher). If that advisory classifies the system as extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, the crossing does not count and the market will resolve to "No".
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin has been declared extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed on or before August 15 without having made landfall on Japanese territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on Japanese land, the market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the market resolves "Yes." A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source. In all cases, the classification is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This is a purely geographic criterion: the storm's center must pass over Japanese land, regardless of whether JMA formally designates the event as "landfall" or "passage." The most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing must classify Dolphin as a tropical cyclone (tropical depression or higher). If that advisory classifies the system as extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, the crossing does not count and the market will resolve to "No".
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin has been declared extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed on or before August 15 without having made landfall on Japanese territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.
マーケット開始日： Jul 30, 2026, 11:53 AM ET
音量
$38,901終了日
2026/08/16マーケット開始日
Jul 30, 2026, 11:53 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market resolves "Yes" if the center of Super Typhoon Dolphin's circulation physically crosses the coastline of any Japanese territory (including Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, and all main islands) on or before August 15, 2026. Resolution is determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the storm over Japanese land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming the storm hitting Japanese territory. The system's classification is determined by the single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing. Once that advisory fixes classification at the time of impact, no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on Japanese land, the market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the market resolves "Yes." A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source. In all cases, the classification is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This is a purely geographic criterion: the storm's center must pass over Japanese land, regardless of whether JMA formally designates the event as "landfall" or "passage." The most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing must classify Dolphin as a tropical cyclone (tropical depression or higher). If that advisory classifies the system as extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, the crossing does not count and the market will resolve to "No".
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin has been declared extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed on or before August 15 without having made landfall on Japanese territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.Recent model consensus shows Super Typhoon Dolphin tracking west-northwest under the influence of a subtropical ridge, positioning it to approach Japan's Ogasawara Islands as a strong typhoon by early August before potentially nearing the Nansei (Ryukyu) Islands. This creates the near-even 50.5% implied probability for a Japan hit, as the storm has already weakened from peak Category 5 strength due to an eyewall replacement cycle and reduced ocean heat content. Key uncertainties include model spread in steering patterns, exact latitude shifts, and whether Dolphin maintains sufficient intensity for landfall criteria on Japanese territory. Updated JTWC and JMA forecasts over the next 48–72 hours, plus new ECMWF and GFS runs, will likely clarify the track and tip market odds.
This market resolves "Yes" if the center of Super Typhoon Dolphin's circulation physically crosses the coastline of any Japanese territory (including Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, and all main islands) on or before August 15, 2026. Resolution is determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the storm over Japanese land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming the storm hitting Japanese territory. The system's classification is determined by the single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing. Once that advisory fixes classification at the time of impact, no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on Japanese land, the market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the market resolves "Yes." A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source. In all cases, the classification is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This is a purely geographic criterion: the storm's center must pass over Japanese land, regardless of whether JMA formally designates the event as "landfall" or "passage." The most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing must classify Dolphin as a tropical cyclone (tropical depression or higher). If that advisory classifies the system as extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, the crossing does not count and the market will resolve to "No".
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin has been declared extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed on or before August 15 without having made landfall on Japanese territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on Japanese land, the market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the market resolves "Yes." A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source. In all cases, the classification is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This is a purely geographic criterion: the storm's center must pass over Japanese land, regardless of whether JMA formally designates the event as "landfall" or "passage." The most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing must classify Dolphin as a tropical cyclone (tropical depression or higher). If that advisory classifies the system as extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, the crossing does not count and the market will resolve to "No".
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin has been declared extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed on or before August 15 without having made landfall on Japanese territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.
音量
$38,901終了日
2026/08/16マーケット開始日
Jul 30, 2026, 11:53 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent model consensus shows Super Typhoon Dolphin tracking west-northwest under the influence of a subtropical ridge, positioning it to approach Japan's Ogasawara Islands as a strong typhoon by early August before potentially nearing the Nansei (Ryukyu) Islands. This creates the near-even 50.5% implied probability for a Japan hit, as the storm has already weakened from peak Category 5 strength due to an eyewall replacement cycle and reduced ocean heat content. Key uncertainties include model spread in steering patterns, exact latitude shifts, and whether Dolphin maintains sufficient intensity for landfall criteria on Japanese territory. Updated JTWC and JMA forecasts over the next 48–72 hours, plus new ECMWF and GFS runs, will likely clarify the track and tip market odds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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