Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 92% implied probability against an Apple Vision Pro 2 release before 2027, driven by the absence of official announcements, supply chain signals, or production ramps as of April 2026—two years after the original's debut amid lackluster sales and tepid adoption of spatial computing. Credible analyst reports, including recent summaries leaning toward no 2026 launch, cite Apple's shift toward lighter, cheaper headsets or smart glasses slated for 2027 unveilings, aligning with historical delays in AR/VR hardware timelines. While WWDC in June or a fall event could surprise with teasers accelerating M5-powered upgrades, technical hurdles like comfort improvements and ecosystem maturity make a late-2026 ship unlikely without prior indicators.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.12.31
신규
신규
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 92% implied probability against an Apple Vision Pro 2 release before 2027, driven by the absence of official announcements, supply chain signals, or production ramps as of April 2026—two years after the original's debut amid lackluster sales and tepid adoption of spatial computing. Credible analyst reports, including recent summaries leaning toward no 2026 launch, cite Apple's shift toward lighter, cheaper headsets or smart glasses slated for 2027 unveilings, aligning with historical delays in AR/VR hardware timelines. While WWDC in June or a fall event could surprise with teasers accelerating M5-powered upgrades, technical hurdles like comfort improvements and ecosystem maturity make a late-2026 ship unlikely without prior indicators.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
거래량
$2,295종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 92% implied probability against an Apple Vision Pro 2 release before 2027, driven by the absence of official announcements, supply chain signals, or production ramps as of April 2026—two years after the original's debut amid lackluster sales and tepid adoption of spatial computing. Credible analyst reports, including recent summaries leaning toward no 2026 launch, cite Apple's shift toward lighter, cheaper headsets or smart glasses slated for 2027 unveilings, aligning with historical delays in AR/VR hardware timelines. While WWDC in June or a fall event could surprise with teasers accelerating M5-powered upgrades, technical hurdles like comfort improvements and ecosystem maturity make a late-2026 ship unlikely without prior indicators.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$2,295종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 92% implied probability against an Apple Vision Pro 2 release before 2027, driven by the absence of official announcements, supply chain signals, or production ramps as of April 2026—two years after the original's debut amid lackluster sales and tepid adoption of spatial computing. Credible analyst reports, including recent summaries leaning toward no 2026 launch, cite Apple's shift toward lighter, cheaper headsets or smart glasses slated for 2027 unveilings, aligning with historical delays in AR/VR hardware timelines. While WWDC in June or a fall event could surprise with teasers accelerating M5-powered upgrades, technical hurdles like comfort improvements and ecosystem maturity make a late-2026 ship unlikely without prior indicators.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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