The district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+26 and consistent primary results, anchors trader consensus around a Democratic hold. Incumbent Kevin Mullin advanced from the June 2, 2026 top-two primary with roughly 60 percent of the vote against Republican Charles Hoelter, who received about 25 percent, setting up a November 3 general election matchup. Historical margins exceeding 70 percent for Democrats in recent cycles and the absence of competitive challengers or major shifts in voter registration reinforce this positioning. Potential disruptions remain limited to unforeseen events such as a significant scandal or health issue affecting the incumbent, though no such developments have emerged.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$116,421 거래량
$116,421 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
96%
공화당
4%
$116,421 거래량
$116,421 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
$92,679 거래량
96%
공화당
$23,742 거래량
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+26 and consistent primary results, anchors trader consensus around a Democratic hold. Incumbent Kevin Mullin advanced from the June 2, 2026 top-two primary with roughly 60 percent of the vote against Republican Charles Hoelter, who received about 25 percent, setting up a November 3 general election matchup. Historical margins exceeding 70 percent for Democrats in recent cycles and the absence of competitive challengers or major shifts in voter registration reinforce this positioning. Potential disruptions remain limited to unforeseen events such as a significant scandal or health issue affecting the incumbent, though no such developments have emerged.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
거래량
$116,421종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+26 and consistent primary results, anchors trader consensus around a Democratic hold. Incumbent Kevin Mullin advanced from the June 2, 2026 top-two primary with roughly 60 percent of the vote against Republican Charles Hoelter, who received about 25 percent, setting up a November 3 general election matchup. Historical margins exceeding 70 percent for Democrats in recent cycles and the absence of competitive challengers or major shifts in voter registration reinforce this positioning. Potential disruptions remain limited to unforeseen events such as a significant scandal or health issue affecting the incumbent, though no such developments have emerged.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$116,421종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+26 and consistent primary results, anchors trader consensus around a Democratic hold. Incumbent Kevin Mullin advanced from the June 2, 2026 top-two primary with roughly 60 percent of the vote against Republican Charles Hoelter, who received about 25 percent, setting up a November 3 general election matchup. Historical margins exceeding 70 percent for Democrats in recent cycles and the absence of competitive challengers or major shifts in voter registration reinforce this positioning. Potential disruptions remain limited to unforeseen events such as a significant scandal or health issue affecting the incumbent, though no such developments have emerged.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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