Trader consensus heavily favors billionaire Tom Steyer at 69.5% to win the 2026 California gubernatorial election, driven by his self-funding advantage and the abrupt collapse of Rep. Eric Swalwell's campaign last weekend amid sexual misconduct allegations, which has funneled Democratic momentum his way in the fragmented top-two primary field ahead of June 2. Recent polls, including a SurveyUSA survey from April 8-10 showing Steyer at 21% and an Impact Research poll placing him second behind Republican Steve Hilton, underscore the crowded race where no candidate exceeds 25% support, heightening risks of a Republican advancing. Katie Porter's 10% and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan's 8.5% reflect their grassroots fundraising and regional appeal, while Hilton's 5.9% highlights GOP viability in a state favoring Democrats. Late scandals or spending surges could shift dynamics before early voting.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트톰 스티어 69.5%
케이티 포터 10.0%
맷 마한 9%
스티브 힐튼 5.9%
$10,430,403 거래량
$10,430,403 거래량
톰 스티어
70%
케이티 포터
10%
맷 마한
9%
스티브 힐튼
6%
채드 비앙코
2%
하비에르 베세라
2%
카말라 해리스
1%
안토니오 비야라이고사
<1%
베티 이
<1%
엘레인 컬로티
<1%
릭 카루소
<1%
스티븐 클루벡
<1%
카일 랭포드
<1%
엘레니 쿠날라키스
<1%
토니 서먼드
<1%
레오 재키
<1%
에릭 스왈웰
<1%
알렉스 파디야
<1%
Butch Ware
<1%
토니 앳킨스
<1%
다니엘 머큐리
<1%
마이클 영어
<1%
니콜 샤나한
<1%
톰 스티어 69.5%
케이티 포터 10.0%
맷 마한 9%
스티브 힐튼 5.9%
$10,430,403 거래량
$10,430,403 거래량
톰 스티어
70%
케이티 포터
10%
맷 마한
9%
스티브 힐튼
6%
채드 비앙코
2%
하비에르 베세라
2%
카말라 해리스
1%
안토니오 비야라이고사
<1%
베티 이
<1%
엘레인 컬로티
<1%
릭 카루소
<1%
스티븐 클루벡
<1%
카일 랭포드
<1%
엘레니 쿠날라키스
<1%
토니 서먼드
<1%
레오 재키
<1%
에릭 스왈웰
<1%
알렉스 파디야
<1%
Butch Ware
<1%
토니 앳킨스
<1%
다니엘 머큐리
<1%
마이클 영어
<1%
니콜 샤나한
<1%
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
마켓 개설일: Oct 9, 2025, 7:21 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors billionaire Tom Steyer at 69.5% to win the 2026 California gubernatorial election, driven by his self-funding advantage and the abrupt collapse of Rep. Eric Swalwell's campaign last weekend amid sexual misconduct allegations, which has funneled Democratic momentum his way in the fragmented top-two primary field ahead of June 2. Recent polls, including a SurveyUSA survey from April 8-10 showing Steyer at 21% and an Impact Research poll placing him second behind Republican Steve Hilton, underscore the crowded race where no candidate exceeds 25% support, heightening risks of a Republican advancing. Katie Porter's 10% and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan's 8.5% reflect their grassroots fundraising and regional appeal, while Hilton's 5.9% highlights GOP viability in a state favoring Democrats. Late scandals or spending surges could shift dynamics before early voting.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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