China's government set a 4.5–5.0% GDP growth target for 2026 during March Two Sessions—the lowest since 1991—amid persistent property sector contraction shaving potential output and subdued domestic consumption, driving trader consensus to price 4.0–5.0% at 68% implied probability. A Reuters poll forecasts 4.6% full-year expansion, supported by expected Q1 rebound to 4.8% year-on-year ahead of official data, robust Jan-Feb exports, and fiscal stimulus via 4% deficit-to-GDP ratio plus special bond issuance. The IMF's April 14 cut to 4.4% reflects Iran war escalation risks hiking energy costs, while 5.0–6.0% at 27% accounts for upside from further policy easing, with extremes dismissed by structural headwinds.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트4.0–5.0% 66%
5.0–6.0% 35.6%
1.0% 미만 1.3%
6.0-7.0% 1.3%
$254,707 거래량
$254,707 거래량
2026.01.31
1.0% 미만
1%
1.0–2.0%
1%
2.0–3.0%
1%
3.0–4.0%
1%
4.0–5.0%
66%
5.0–6.0%
30%
6.0-7.0%
1%
7.0–8.0%
<1%
8.0~9.0%
1%
9.0%+
<1%
4.0–5.0% 66%
5.0–6.0% 35.6%
1.0% 미만 1.3%
6.0-7.0% 1.3%
$254,707 거래량
$254,707 거래량
2026.01.31
1.0% 미만
$21,434 거래량
1%
1.0–2.0%
$27,369 거래량
1%
2.0–3.0%
$6,614 거래량
1%
3.0–4.0%
$10,429 거래량
1%
4.0–5.0%
$41,696 거래량
66%
5.0–6.0%
$21,910 거래량
30%
6.0-7.0%
$19,570 거래량
1%
7.0–8.0%
$29,766 거래량
<1%
8.0~9.0%
$6,927 거래량
1%
9.0%+
$68,994 거래량
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's government set a 4.5–5.0% GDP growth target for 2026 during March Two Sessions—the lowest since 1991—amid persistent property sector contraction shaving potential output and subdued domestic consumption, driving trader consensus to price 4.0–5.0% at 68% implied probability. A Reuters poll forecasts 4.6% full-year expansion, supported by expected Q1 rebound to 4.8% year-on-year ahead of official data, robust Jan-Feb exports, and fiscal stimulus via 4% deficit-to-GDP ratio plus special bond issuance. The IMF's April 14 cut to 4.4% reflects Iran war escalation risks hiking energy costs, while 5.0–6.0% at 27% accounts for upside from further policy easing, with extremes dismissed by structural headwinds.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
마켓 개설일: Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
거래량
$254,707종료일
2026.01.31마켓 개설일
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's government set a 4.5–5.0% GDP growth target for 2026 during March Two Sessions—the lowest since 1991—amid persistent property sector contraction shaving potential output and subdued domestic consumption, driving trader consensus to price 4.0–5.0% at 68% implied probability. A Reuters poll forecasts 4.6% full-year expansion, supported by expected Q1 rebound to 4.8% year-on-year ahead of official data, robust Jan-Feb exports, and fiscal stimulus via 4% deficit-to-GDP ratio plus special bond issuance. The IMF's April 14 cut to 4.4% reflects Iran war escalation risks hiking energy costs, while 5.0–6.0% at 27% accounts for upside from further policy easing, with extremes dismissed by structural headwinds.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
거래량
$254,707종료일
2026.01.31마켓 개설일
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...China's government set a 4.5–5.0% GDP growth target for 2026 during March Two Sessions—the lowest since 1991—amid persistent property sector contraction shaving potential output and subdued domestic consumption, driving trader consensus to price 4.0–5.0% at 68% implied probability. A Reuters poll forecasts 4.6% full-year expansion, supported by expected Q1 rebound to 4.8% year-on-year ahead of official data, robust Jan-Feb exports, and fiscal stimulus via 4% deficit-to-GDP ratio plus special bond issuance. The IMF's April 14 cut to 4.4% reflects Iran war escalation risks hiking energy costs, while 5.0–6.0% at 27% accounts for upside from further policy easing, with extremes dismissed by structural headwinds.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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