Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects Elon Musk's accelerating X posting pace through mid-April 2026, with recent daily surges to 50-80 posts—driven by viral threads on South Africa's "Apartheid 2.0" race laws, Tesla Semi showcases, and AI5 chip tapeout milestones—pushing the implied monthly total toward 1200-1300. Early April averaged under 35 posts daily amid quieter periods, but escalating engagement from political spats with President Ramaphosa and company hype has clustered probabilities tightly around 1160-1279, as traders debate if this high-volume streak sustains amid unpredictable cultural firestorms or moderates. Key swing factors include potential SpaceX updates or further global controversies, with the market's skin-in-the-game wisdom pricing a narrow frontrunner edge for 1240-1279 at 14.1% amid razor-thin 12-14% spreads.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트1240-1279 14.1%
1200~1239 12.5%
1160~1199 12.3%
1280-1319 10.3%
$7,693,871 거래량
$7,693,871 거래량
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580~599
<1%
600~619
<1%
620-639
<1%
640-659
<1%
660-679
<1%
680-699
<1%
700~719
<1%
720-739
<1%
740-759
<1%
760-779
<1%
780-799
<1%
800~839
1%
840-879
1%
880-919
<1%
920-959
2%
960~999
2%
1000~1039
5%
1040-1079
5%
1080~1119
4%
1120-1159
8%
1160~1199
12%
1200~1239
13%
1240-1279
14%
1280-1319
10%
1320~1359
6%
1360-1399
4%
1400~1439
3%
1440-1479
2%
1480-1519
1%
1520-1559
1%
1560~1599
1%
1600~1679
1%
1680-1759
1%
1760-1839
<1%
1840-1919
<1%
1920-1999
<1%
2000개 이상
<1%
1240-1279 14.1%
1200~1239 12.5%
1160~1199 12.3%
1280-1319 10.3%
$7,693,871 거래량
$7,693,871 거래량
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580~599
<1%
600~619
<1%
620-639
<1%
640-659
<1%
660-679
<1%
680-699
<1%
700~719
<1%
720-739
<1%
740-759
<1%
760-779
<1%
780-799
<1%
800~839
1%
840-879
1%
880-919
<1%
920-959
2%
960~999
2%
1000~1039
5%
1040-1079
5%
1080~1119
4%
1120-1159
8%
1160~1199
12%
1200~1239
13%
1240-1279
14%
1280-1319
10%
1320~1359
6%
1360-1399
4%
1400~1439
3%
1440-1479
2%
1480-1519
1%
1520-1559
1%
1560~1599
1%
1600~1679
1%
1680-1759
1%
1760-1839
<1%
1840-1919
<1%
1920-1999
<1%
2000개 이상
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
마켓 개설일: Feb 24, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects Elon Musk's accelerating X posting pace through mid-April 2026, with recent daily surges to 50-80 posts—driven by viral threads on South Africa's "Apartheid 2.0" race laws, Tesla Semi showcases, and AI5 chip tapeout milestones—pushing the implied monthly total toward 1200-1300. Early April averaged under 35 posts daily amid quieter periods, but escalating engagement from political spats with President Ramaphosa and company hype has clustered probabilities tightly around 1160-1279, as traders debate if this high-volume streak sustains amid unpredictable cultural firestorms or moderates. Key swing factors include potential SpaceX updates or further global controversies, with the market's skin-in-the-game wisdom pricing a narrow frontrunner edge for 1240-1279 at 14.1% amid razor-thin 12-14% spreads.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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