Illinois's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+17 Partisan Voter Index and consistent ratings as a Solid or Safe Democratic seat by major forecasters. The open seat following incumbent Jesús "Chuy" García's decision not to seek reelection in 2026 has not altered this positioning, as his endorsed successor, Patty Garcia, secured the Democratic nomination in the uncontested March 2026 primary. Independent candidates, including some Democrats, are expected on the November general election ballot, yet historical voting patterns and limited Republican infrastructure in the district sustain trader consensus around a Democratic hold. A major shift would require unusual turnout changes or a highly effective independent campaign, outcomes that have not materialized in comparable safe seats.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$52,331 거래량
$52,331 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
95%
공화당
3%
$52,331 거래량
$52,331 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
$37,684 거래량
95%
공화당
$14,647 거래량
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Illinois's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+17 Partisan Voter Index and consistent ratings as a Solid or Safe Democratic seat by major forecasters. The open seat following incumbent Jesús "Chuy" García's decision not to seek reelection in 2026 has not altered this positioning, as his endorsed successor, Patty Garcia, secured the Democratic nomination in the uncontested March 2026 primary. Independent candidates, including some Democrats, are expected on the November general election ballot, yet historical voting patterns and limited Republican infrastructure in the district sustain trader consensus around a Democratic hold. A major shift would require unusual turnout changes or a highly effective independent campaign, outcomes that have not materialized in comparable safe seats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
거래량
$52,331종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Illinois's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+17 Partisan Voter Index and consistent ratings as a Solid or Safe Democratic seat by major forecasters. The open seat following incumbent Jesús "Chuy" García's decision not to seek reelection in 2026 has not altered this positioning, as his endorsed successor, Patty Garcia, secured the Democratic nomination in the uncontested March 2026 primary. Independent candidates, including some Democrats, are expected on the November general election ballot, yet historical voting patterns and limited Republican infrastructure in the district sustain trader consensus around a Democratic hold. A major shift would require unusual turnout changes or a highly effective independent campaign, outcomes that have not materialized in comparable safe seats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$52,331종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Illinois's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+17 Partisan Voter Index and consistent ratings as a Solid or Safe Democratic seat by major forecasters. The open seat following incumbent Jesús "Chuy" García's decision not to seek reelection in 2026 has not altered this positioning, as his endorsed successor, Patty Garcia, secured the Democratic nomination in the uncontested March 2026 primary. Independent candidates, including some Democrats, are expected on the November general election ballot, yet historical voting patterns and limited Republican infrastructure in the district sustain trader consensus around a Democratic hold. A major shift would require unusual turnout changes or a highly effective independent campaign, outcomes that have not materialized in comparable safe seats.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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