Incumbent Democratic Sen. Ed Markey maintains a lead over primary challenger Rep. Seth Moulton (47%-30%) in the latest Suffolk/Globe poll of April 9-13, underscoring trader confidence in a Democratic general election winner given Massachusetts' history of electing just two Republican U.S. senators since 1961. The state's deep-blue status, Markey's incumbency advantage, and early hypothetical matchups showing Democrats ahead by 25+ points against GOP candidate John Deaton—despite his MassGOP endorsement—drive the 94.5% implied probability. Resolution awaits the November 3 general election following September 1 primaries. Upsets could stem from a primary-weakened Democratic nominee, Markey's age-related health concerns at 80, a high-profile Republican recruit like former Gov. Charlie Baker, or a national GOP wave, though historical base rates favor Democrats decisively.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$12,289 거래량
$12,289 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
95%
공화당
5%
$12,289 거래량
$12,289 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
$7,719 거래량
95%
공화당
$4,570 거래량
5%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Massachusetts U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Sen. Ed Markey maintains a lead over primary challenger Rep. Seth Moulton (47%-30%) in the latest Suffolk/Globe poll of April 9-13, underscoring trader confidence in a Democratic general election winner given Massachusetts' history of electing just two Republican U.S. senators since 1961. The state's deep-blue status, Markey's incumbency advantage, and early hypothetical matchups showing Democrats ahead by 25+ points against GOP candidate John Deaton—despite his MassGOP endorsement—drive the 94.5% implied probability. Resolution awaits the November 3 general election following September 1 primaries. Upsets could stem from a primary-weakened Democratic nominee, Markey's age-related health concerns at 80, a high-profile Republican recruit like former Gov. Charlie Baker, or a national GOP wave, though historical base rates favor Democrats decisively.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Massachusetts U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
마켓 개설일: Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ET
거래량
$12,289종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Massachusetts U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Sen. Ed Markey maintains a lead over primary challenger Rep. Seth Moulton (47%-30%) in the latest Suffolk/Globe poll of April 9-13, underscoring trader confidence in a Democratic general election winner given Massachusetts' history of electing just two Republican U.S. senators since 1961. The state's deep-blue status, Markey's incumbency advantage, and early hypothetical matchups showing Democrats ahead by 25+ points against GOP candidate John Deaton—despite his MassGOP endorsement—drive the 94.5% implied probability. Resolution awaits the November 3 general election following September 1 primaries. Upsets could stem from a primary-weakened Democratic nominee, Markey's age-related health concerns at 80, a high-profile Republican recruit like former Gov. Charlie Baker, or a national GOP wave, though historical base rates favor Democrats decisively.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Massachusetts U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
거래량
$12,289종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Sen. Ed Markey maintains a lead over primary challenger Rep. Seth Moulton (47%-30%) in the latest Suffolk/Globe poll of April 9-13, underscoring trader confidence in a Democratic general election winner given Massachusetts' history of electing just two Republican U.S. senators since 1961. The state's deep-blue status, Markey's incumbency advantage, and early hypothetical matchups showing Democrats ahead by 25+ points against GOP candidate John Deaton—despite his MassGOP endorsement—drive the 94.5% implied probability. Resolution awaits the November 3 general election following September 1 primaries. Upsets could stem from a primary-weakened Democratic nominee, Markey's age-related health concerns at 80, a high-profile Republican recruit like former Gov. Charlie Baker, or a national GOP wave, though historical base rates favor Democrats decisively.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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