Incumbent Rep. Betty McCollum's commanding hold on Minnesota's safely Democratic 4th Congressional District drives trader consensus favoring Democrats at 92%, reflecting the district's D+18 partisan lean and her consistent general election margins above 63% since 2001. Recent Sierra Club endorsement on April 8 bolsters her environmental leadership amid strong fundraising, with $669,000 cash on hand as of late March versus minimal Republican primary challengers Paul Wikstrom and Paul Xiong. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. Scenarios to challenge include a high-profile GOP recruit before the June 2 filing deadline, McCollum primary upset on August 11, national Republican midterm surge, or late scandal affecting the Democratic nominee.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
92%
Republican Party
9%
신규
신규
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
$2,080 거래량
92%
Republican Party
$1,918 거래량
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Betty McCollum's commanding hold on Minnesota's safely Democratic 4th Congressional District drives trader consensus favoring Democrats at 92%, reflecting the district's D+18 partisan lean and her consistent general election margins above 63% since 2001. Recent Sierra Club endorsement on April 8 bolsters her environmental leadership amid strong fundraising, with $669,000 cash on hand as of late March versus minimal Republican primary challengers Paul Wikstrom and Paul Xiong. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. Scenarios to challenge include a high-profile GOP recruit before the June 2 filing deadline, McCollum primary upset on August 11, national Republican midterm surge, or late scandal affecting the Democratic nominee.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
거래량
$3,997종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Betty McCollum's commanding hold on Minnesota's safely Democratic 4th Congressional District drives trader consensus favoring Democrats at 92%, reflecting the district's D+18 partisan lean and her consistent general election margins above 63% since 2001. Recent Sierra Club endorsement on April 8 bolsters her environmental leadership amid strong fundraising, with $669,000 cash on hand as of late March versus minimal Republican primary challengers Paul Wikstrom and Paul Xiong. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. Scenarios to challenge include a high-profile GOP recruit before the June 2 filing deadline, McCollum primary upset on August 11, national Republican midterm surge, or late scandal affecting the Democratic nominee.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$3,997종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Betty McCollum's commanding hold on Minnesota's safely Democratic 4th Congressional District drives trader consensus favoring Democrats at 92%, reflecting the district's D+18 partisan lean and her consistent general election margins above 63% since 2001. Recent Sierra Club endorsement on April 8 bolsters her environmental leadership amid strong fundraising, with $669,000 cash on hand as of late March versus minimal Republican primary challengers Paul Wikstrom and Paul Xiong. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. Scenarios to challenge include a high-profile GOP recruit before the June 2 filing deadline, McCollum primary upset on August 11, national Republican midterm surge, or late scandal affecting the Democratic nominee.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문