Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 77% implied probability to "No" for OpenAI announcing artificial general intelligence (AGI) achievement before 2027, driven by the absence of any official claim despite accelerating progress in large language models and agentic capabilities. Recent developments, including OpenAI's February 2026 GPT-5.3-Codex release and Sam Altman's comments on a "faster takeoff" toward superintelligence by around 2028, have shortened some forecasters' timelines to 2027–2028, fueled by advances in coding automation and internal research scaling. However, persistent ambiguity in AGI definitions—requiring human-level cognition across benchmarks like ARC-AGI—and cautious public statements reflect skepticism, with traders awaiting explicit verification amid competitive pressures from Anthropic's Mythos and regulatory scrutiny on AI safety. Key catalysts include potential mid-2026 model launches or developer conferences that could shift sentiment.