Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects closely contested odds, with no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2027, at a 30% implied probability narrowly leading 500–750B market cap outcomes at 26.5%, driven by internal rifts and post-funding valuation scrutiny. Following the March 31 close of a record $122 billion round valuing OpenAI at $852 billion post-money, CFO Sarah Friar flagged aggressive Q4 2026 IPO timelines pushed by CEO Sam Altman as risky amid $17 billion projected 2026 cash burn and an enterprise pivot. Investor skepticism grows from secondary market illiquidity for OpenAI shares—versus hot demand for rival Anthropic—and intensifying competition from Google and others, with regulatory approvals and revenue execution as pivotal swing factors for any listing.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트No IPO by December 31, 2027 30%
500–750B 27%
750B–1T 20%
1T–1.25T 14%
$14,106 거래량
$14,106 거래량
2027.12.31
<500B
7%
500–750B
27%
750B–1T
20%
1T–1.25T
17%
1.25T–1.5T
14%
1.5T+
15%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
30%
No IPO by December 31, 2027 30%
500–750B 27%
750B–1T 20%
1T–1.25T 14%
$14,106 거래량
$14,106 거래량
2027.12.31
<500B
$62 거래량
7%
500–750B
$84 거래량
27%
750B–1T
$90 거래량
20%
1T–1.25T
$2,920 거래량
17%
1.25T–1.5T
$126 거래량
14%
1.5T+
$42 거래량
15%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
$10,783 거래량
30%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects closely contested odds, with no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2027, at a 30% implied probability narrowly leading 500–750B market cap outcomes at 26.5%, driven by internal rifts and post-funding valuation scrutiny. Following the March 31 close of a record $122 billion round valuing OpenAI at $852 billion post-money, CFO Sarah Friar flagged aggressive Q4 2026 IPO timelines pushed by CEO Sam Altman as risky amid $17 billion projected 2026 cash burn and an enterprise pivot. Investor skepticism grows from secondary market illiquidity for OpenAI shares—versus hot demand for rival Anthropic—and intensifying competition from Google and others, with regulatory approvals and revenue execution as pivotal swing factors for any listing.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
마켓 개설일: Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
거래량
$14,106종료일
2027.12.31마켓 개설일
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects closely contested odds, with no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2027, at a 30% implied probability narrowly leading 500–750B market cap outcomes at 26.5%, driven by internal rifts and post-funding valuation scrutiny. Following the March 31 close of a record $122 billion round valuing OpenAI at $852 billion post-money, CFO Sarah Friar flagged aggressive Q4 2026 IPO timelines pushed by CEO Sam Altman as risky amid $17 billion projected 2026 cash burn and an enterprise pivot. Investor skepticism grows from secondary market illiquidity for OpenAI shares—versus hot demand for rival Anthropic—and intensifying competition from Google and others, with regulatory approvals and revenue execution as pivotal swing factors for any listing.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
거래량
$14,106종료일
2027.12.31마켓 개설일
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects closely contested odds, with no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2027, at a 30% implied probability narrowly leading 500–750B market cap outcomes at 26.5%, driven by internal rifts and post-funding valuation scrutiny. Following the March 31 close of a record $122 billion round valuing OpenAI at $852 billion post-money, CFO Sarah Friar flagged aggressive Q4 2026 IPO timelines pushed by CEO Sam Altman as risky amid $17 billion projected 2026 cash burn and an enterprise pivot. Investor skepticism grows from secondary market illiquidity for OpenAI shares—versus hot demand for rival Anthropic—and intensifying competition from Google and others, with regulatory approvals and revenue execution as pivotal swing factors for any listing.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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