Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, at a 62.5% implied probability, driven by recent reports of internal tensions where CFO Sarah Friar warned that CEO Sam Altman's aggressive Q4 timeline is unrealistic amid $600 billion in planned five-year expenditures and profitability not expected until 2029. OpenAI's March 31 closure of a record $122 billion funding round—valuing the artificial intelligence leader at $852 billion with backers like SoftBank, Nvidia, and Amazon—provides ample private capital, diminishing public listing urgency while highlighting reliance on massive compute investments for large language model advancements. High-cap outcomes like 1.5T+ (9.4%) capture AI growth optimism but face public market skepticism over regulatory scrutiny, leadership rifts, and competition from Anthropic; key catalysts include potential S-1 filings or restructuring updates.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트2026년 12월 31일까지 미상장 63%
1.5조+ 9.4%
7,500억–1조 6.8%
1.25조–1.5조 6.2%
$1,579,708 거래량
$1,579,708 거래량
2026.06.30
5,000억 달러 미만
5%
5,000억~7,500억
4%
7,500억–1조
7%
1조–1.25조
3%
1.25조–1.5조
6%
1.5조+
9%
2026년 12월 31일까지 미상장
63%
2026년 12월 31일까지 미상장 63%
1.5조+ 9.4%
7,500억–1조 6.8%
1.25조–1.5조 6.2%
$1,579,708 거래량
$1,579,708 거래량
2026.06.30
5,000억 달러 미만
$259,821 거래량
5%
5,000억~7,500억
$141,571 거래량
4%
7,500억–1조
$134,985 거래량
7%
1조–1.25조
$175,470 거래량
3%
1.25조–1.5조
$489,789 거래량
6%
1.5조+
$94,545 거래량
9%
2026년 12월 31일까지 미상장
$283,533 거래량
63%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, at a 62.5% implied probability, driven by recent reports of internal tensions where CFO Sarah Friar warned that CEO Sam Altman's aggressive Q4 timeline is unrealistic amid $600 billion in planned five-year expenditures and profitability not expected until 2029. OpenAI's March 31 closure of a record $122 billion funding round—valuing the artificial intelligence leader at $852 billion with backers like SoftBank, Nvidia, and Amazon—provides ample private capital, diminishing public listing urgency while highlighting reliance on massive compute investments for large language model advancements. High-cap outcomes like 1.5T+ (9.4%) capture AI growth optimism but face public market skepticism over regulatory scrutiny, leadership rifts, and competition from Anthropic; key catalysts include potential S-1 filings or restructuring updates.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
마켓 개설일: Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ET
거래량
$1,579,708종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, at a 62.5% implied probability, driven by recent reports of internal tensions where CFO Sarah Friar warned that CEO Sam Altman's aggressive Q4 timeline is unrealistic amid $600 billion in planned five-year expenditures and profitability not expected until 2029. OpenAI's March 31 closure of a record $122 billion funding round—valuing the artificial intelligence leader at $852 billion with backers like SoftBank, Nvidia, and Amazon—provides ample private capital, diminishing public listing urgency while highlighting reliance on massive compute investments for large language model advancements. High-cap outcomes like 1.5T+ (9.4%) capture AI growth optimism but face public market skepticism over regulatory scrutiny, leadership rifts, and competition from Anthropic; key catalysts include potential S-1 filings or restructuring updates.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
거래량
$1,579,708종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, at a 62.5% implied probability, driven by recent reports of internal tensions where CFO Sarah Friar warned that CEO Sam Altman's aggressive Q4 timeline is unrealistic amid $600 billion in planned five-year expenditures and profitability not expected until 2029. OpenAI's March 31 closure of a record $122 billion funding round—valuing the artificial intelligence leader at $852 billion with backers like SoftBank, Nvidia, and Amazon—provides ample private capital, diminishing public listing urgency while highlighting reliance on massive compute investments for large language model advancements. High-cap outcomes like 1.5T+ (9.4%) capture AI growth optimism but face public market skepticism over regulatory scrutiny, leadership rifts, and competition from Anthropic; key catalysts include potential S-1 filings or restructuring updates.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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