Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 96.7% implied probability against a Fannie Mae IPO by June 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of any official filing, recapitalization progress, or FHFA announcements since Director Bill Pulte's early February signals of no immediate rush to exit conservatorship. Recent Treasury Market Practices Group consultations on potential GSE ownership changes, launched February 26 with comments due April 30, underscore market concerns over agency MBS liquidity disruptions, as highlighted by PIMCO's cautions against premature privatization talk. House Financial Services Chair French Hill's February assessment that the GSEs remain unready reinforces this positioning, with FHFA silence over the past 70 days amid complex capital requirements for the $7 trillion mortgage guarantor. Realistic challenges include an accelerated administrative push or surprise S-1 filing, though regulatory hurdles and MBS stability priorities make this improbable in the tight 75-day window.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트2026년 6월 30일까지 상장 없음 96.6%
3,000억–3,500억 <1%
4,000억+ <1%
350–400억 <1%
$272,632 거래량
$272,632 거래량
2026.06.30
2,000억 미만
<1%
2,000억~2,500억
<1%
2,500–3,000억
<1%
3,000억–3,500억
1%
350–400억
<1%
4,000억+
1%
2026년 6월 30일까지 상장 없음
97%
2026년 6월 30일까지 상장 없음 96.6%
3,000억–3,500억 <1%
4,000억+ <1%
350–400억 <1%
$272,632 거래량
$272,632 거래량
2026.06.30
2,000억 미만
$41,779 거래량
<1%
2,000억~2,500억
$48,370 거래량
<1%
2,500–3,000억
$11,602 거래량
<1%
3,000억–3,500억
$95,015 거래량
1%
350–400억
$11,109 거래량
<1%
4,000억+
$48,000 거래량
1%
2026년 6월 30일까지 상장 없음
$16,757 거래량
97%
This market will resolve based on Fannie Mae's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Fannie Mae’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 96.7% implied probability against a Fannie Mae IPO by June 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of any official filing, recapitalization progress, or FHFA announcements since Director Bill Pulte's early February signals of no immediate rush to exit conservatorship. Recent Treasury Market Practices Group consultations on potential GSE ownership changes, launched February 26 with comments due April 30, underscore market concerns over agency MBS liquidity disruptions, as highlighted by PIMCO's cautions against premature privatization talk. House Financial Services Chair French Hill's February assessment that the GSEs remain unready reinforces this positioning, with FHFA silence over the past 70 days amid complex capital requirements for the $7 trillion mortgage guarantor. Realistic challenges include an accelerated administrative push or surprise S-1 filing, though regulatory hurdles and MBS stability priorities make this improbable in the tight 75-day window.
This market will resolve based on Fannie Mae's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Fannie Mae’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Fannie Mae’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
마켓 개설일: Sep 22, 2025, 7:50 PM ET
거래량
$272,632종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Sep 22, 2025, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on Fannie Mae's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Fannie Mae’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 96.7% implied probability against a Fannie Mae IPO by June 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of any official filing, recapitalization progress, or FHFA announcements since Director Bill Pulte's early February signals of no immediate rush to exit conservatorship. Recent Treasury Market Practices Group consultations on potential GSE ownership changes, launched February 26 with comments due April 30, underscore market concerns over agency MBS liquidity disruptions, as highlighted by PIMCO's cautions against premature privatization talk. House Financial Services Chair French Hill's February assessment that the GSEs remain unready reinforces this positioning, with FHFA silence over the past 70 days amid complex capital requirements for the $7 trillion mortgage guarantor. Realistic challenges include an accelerated administrative push or surprise S-1 filing, though regulatory hurdles and MBS stability priorities make this improbable in the tight 75-day window.
This market will resolve based on Fannie Mae's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Fannie Mae’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Fannie Mae’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
거래량
$272,632종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Sep 22, 2025, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 96.7% implied probability against a Fannie Mae IPO by June 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of any official filing, recapitalization progress, or FHFA announcements since Director Bill Pulte's early February signals of no immediate rush to exit conservatorship. Recent Treasury Market Practices Group consultations on potential GSE ownership changes, launched February 26 with comments due April 30, underscore market concerns over agency MBS liquidity disruptions, as highlighted by PIMCO's cautions against premature privatization talk. House Financial Services Chair French Hill's February assessment that the GSEs remain unready reinforces this positioning, with FHFA silence over the past 70 days amid complex capital requirements for the $7 trillion mortgage guarantor. Realistic challenges include an accelerated administrative push or surprise S-1 filing, though regulatory hurdles and MBS stability priorities make this improbable in the tight 75-day window.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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