Trader consensus on the 2026 US trade deficit clusters tightly around 800–900 billion (32.5%) and 900 billion–1 trillion (25%), reflecting volatility in recent Bureau of Economic Analysis data: the year-to-date goods and services deficit plunged 54.8% through February versus 2025, driven by surging exports to a record high, yet February's gap widened 4.9% to $57.3 billion on rebounding imports amid tariff policy shifts. Ongoing Trump administration tariffs have curbed some import growth but sparked uncertainty in trade negotiations and supply chains, tempering expectations for sustained narrowing. Separation could emerge from upcoming monthly trade releases, GDP trends influencing import demand, or escalated tariffs on key partners like China, with historical patterns showing deficits sensitive to economic expansion and bilateral deals.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$19,219 거래량
$19,219 거래량
2027.02.28
<5,000억 달러
8%
5,000억~6,000억
3%
6,000억~7,000억
7%
7,000억~8,000억
13%
8,000억~9,000억
33%
9,000억~1조
25%
1조–1.1조
12%
1.1조+
8%
$19,219 거래량
$19,219 거래량
2027.02.28
<5,000억 달러
$16,429 거래량
8%
5,000억~6,000억
$225 거래량
3%
6,000억~7,000억
$244 거래량
7%
7,000억~8,000억
$290 거래량
13%
8,000억~9,000억
$570 거래량
33%
9,000억~1조
$765 거래량
25%
1조–1.1조
$239 거래량
12%
1.1조+
$457 거래량
8%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Trader consensus on the 2026 US trade deficit clusters tightly around 800–900 billion (32.5%) and 900 billion–1 trillion (25%), reflecting volatility in recent Bureau of Economic Analysis data: the year-to-date goods and services deficit plunged 54.8% through February versus 2025, driven by surging exports to a record high, yet February's gap widened 4.9% to $57.3 billion on rebounding imports amid tariff policy shifts. Ongoing Trump administration tariffs have curbed some import growth but sparked uncertainty in trade negotiations and supply chains, tempering expectations for sustained narrowing. Separation could emerge from upcoming monthly trade releases, GDP trends influencing import demand, or escalated tariffs on key partners like China, with historical patterns showing deficits sensitive to economic expansion and bilateral deals.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
마켓 개설일: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
거래량
$19,219종료일
2027.02.28마켓 개설일
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Trader consensus on the 2026 US trade deficit clusters tightly around 800–900 billion (32.5%) and 900 billion–1 trillion (25%), reflecting volatility in recent Bureau of Economic Analysis data: the year-to-date goods and services deficit plunged 54.8% through February versus 2025, driven by surging exports to a record high, yet February's gap widened 4.9% to $57.3 billion on rebounding imports amid tariff policy shifts. Ongoing Trump administration tariffs have curbed some import growth but sparked uncertainty in trade negotiations and supply chains, tempering expectations for sustained narrowing. Separation could emerge from upcoming monthly trade releases, GDP trends influencing import demand, or escalated tariffs on key partners like China, with historical patterns showing deficits sensitive to economic expansion and bilateral deals.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
거래량
$19,219종료일
2027.02.28마켓 개설일
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on the 2026 US trade deficit clusters tightly around 800–900 billion (32.5%) and 900 billion–1 trillion (25%), reflecting volatility in recent Bureau of Economic Analysis data: the year-to-date goods and services deficit plunged 54.8% through February versus 2025, driven by surging exports to a record high, yet February's gap widened 4.9% to $57.3 billion on rebounding imports amid tariff policy shifts. Ongoing Trump administration tariffs have curbed some import growth but sparked uncertainty in trade negotiations and supply chains, tempering expectations for sustained narrowing. Separation could emerge from upcoming monthly trade releases, GDP trends influencing import demand, or escalated tariffs on key partners like China, with historical patterns showing deficits sensitive to economic expansion and bilateral deals.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문