Recent U.S. tariff increases, implemented primarily in 2025, have reduced goods imports while prompting supply-chain adjustments and some export recovery, narrowing the annual trade deficit from over $900 billion in 2025 to roughly $838 billion over the 12 months through January 2026. Monthly goods-and-services gaps have stabilized near $55–60 billion in early 2026, consistent with Congressional Budget Office projections of further gradual shrinkage through 2026 as tariff effects persist and the dollar weakens modestly. These dynamics position the $800–900 billion and $900 billion–$1 trillion ranges as the leading trader consensus, reflecting expectations that policy-driven import restraint will outweigh any rebound in domestic demand or retaliatory pressures. Continued monitoring of import volumes and bilateral shifts with major partners will determine whether the deficit settles below or above $900 billion by year-end.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$21,139 거래량
$21,139 거래량
2027.02.28
<5,000억 달러
5%
5,000억~6,000억
6%
6,000억~7,000억
10%
7,000억~8,000억
8%
8,000억~9,000억
44%
9,000억~1조
29%
1조–1.1조
5%
1.1조+
4%
$21,139 거래량
$21,139 거래량
2027.02.28
<5,000억 달러
$16,691 거래량
5%
5,000억~6,000억
$413 거래량
6%
6,000억~7,000억
$505 거래량
10%
7,000억~8,000억
$456 거래량
8%
8,000억~9,000억
$1,008 거래량
44%
9,000억~1조
$984 거래량
29%
1조–1.1조
$447 거래량
5%
1.1조+
$635 거래량
4%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent U.S. tariff increases, implemented primarily in 2025, have reduced goods imports while prompting supply-chain adjustments and some export recovery, narrowing the annual trade deficit from over $900 billion in 2025 to roughly $838 billion over the 12 months through January 2026. Monthly goods-and-services gaps have stabilized near $55–60 billion in early 2026, consistent with Congressional Budget Office projections of further gradual shrinkage through 2026 as tariff effects persist and the dollar weakens modestly. These dynamics position the $800–900 billion and $900 billion–$1 trillion ranges as the leading trader consensus, reflecting expectations that policy-driven import restraint will outweigh any rebound in domestic demand or retaliatory pressures. Continued monitoring of import volumes and bilateral shifts with major partners will determine whether the deficit settles below or above $900 billion by year-end.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
마켓 개설일: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
거래량
$21,139종료일
2027.02.28마켓 개설일
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent U.S. tariff increases, implemented primarily in 2025, have reduced goods imports while prompting supply-chain adjustments and some export recovery, narrowing the annual trade deficit from over $900 billion in 2025 to roughly $838 billion over the 12 months through January 2026. Monthly goods-and-services gaps have stabilized near $55–60 billion in early 2026, consistent with Congressional Budget Office projections of further gradual shrinkage through 2026 as tariff effects persist and the dollar weakens modestly. These dynamics position the $800–900 billion and $900 billion–$1 trillion ranges as the leading trader consensus, reflecting expectations that policy-driven import restraint will outweigh any rebound in domestic demand or retaliatory pressures. Continued monitoring of import volumes and bilateral shifts with major partners will determine whether the deficit settles below or above $900 billion by year-end.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
거래량
$21,139종료일
2027.02.28마켓 개설일
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. tariff increases, implemented primarily in 2025, have reduced goods imports while prompting supply-chain adjustments and some export recovery, narrowing the annual trade deficit from over $900 billion in 2025 to roughly $838 billion over the 12 months through January 2026. Monthly goods-and-services gaps have stabilized near $55–60 billion in early 2026, consistent with Congressional Budget Office projections of further gradual shrinkage through 2026 as tariff effects persist and the dollar weakens modestly. These dynamics position the $800–900 billion and $900 billion–$1 trillion ranges as the leading trader consensus, reflecting expectations that policy-driven import restraint will outweigh any rebound in domestic demand or retaliatory pressures. Continued monitoring of import volumes and bilateral shifts with major partners will determine whether the deficit settles below or above $900 billion by year-end.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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