Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 74% implied probability against Tesla selling its Cybercab robotaxi for $30,000 or less in 2026, driven by skepticism over pricing feasibility amid production ramp-up hurdles and historical delays in Elon Musk's timelines. Recent developments include the first Cybercab unit rolling off Giga Texas lines in February 2026, with volume production targeted for April, and Musk's February reaffirmation of sub-$30,000 consumer sales before 2027—yet no customer orders or deliveries have materialized four months into the year. Tesla's Q1 2026 vehicle delivery miss fueled doubts on execution, while regulatory approvals for unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) remain pending, potentially delaying driverless deployment. Key catalyst: Upcoming Q1 earnings on April 22 could clarify ramp rates and pricing.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$32,391 거래량
$32,391 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$32,391 거래량
$32,391 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 74% implied probability against Tesla selling its Cybercab robotaxi for $30,000 or less in 2026, driven by skepticism over pricing feasibility amid production ramp-up hurdles and historical delays in Elon Musk's timelines. Recent developments include the first Cybercab unit rolling off Giga Texas lines in February 2026, with volume production targeted for April, and Musk's February reaffirmation of sub-$30,000 consumer sales before 2027—yet no customer orders or deliveries have materialized four months into the year. Tesla's Q1 2026 vehicle delivery miss fueled doubts on execution, while regulatory approvals for unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) remain pending, potentially delaying driverless deployment. Key catalyst: Upcoming Q1 earnings on April 22 could clarify ramp rates and pricing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
거래량
$32,391종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 74% implied probability against Tesla selling its Cybercab robotaxi for $30,000 or less in 2026, driven by skepticism over pricing feasibility amid production ramp-up hurdles and historical delays in Elon Musk's timelines. Recent developments include the first Cybercab unit rolling off Giga Texas lines in February 2026, with volume production targeted for April, and Musk's February reaffirmation of sub-$30,000 consumer sales before 2027—yet no customer orders or deliveries have materialized four months into the year. Tesla's Q1 2026 vehicle delivery miss fueled doubts on execution, while regulatory approvals for unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) remain pending, potentially delaying driverless deployment. Key catalyst: Upcoming Q1 earnings on April 22 could clarify ramp rates and pricing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$32,391종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 74% implied probability against Tesla selling its Cybercab robotaxi for $30,000 or less in 2026, driven by skepticism over pricing feasibility amid production ramp-up hurdles and historical delays in Elon Musk's timelines. Recent developments include the first Cybercab unit rolling off Giga Texas lines in February 2026, with volume production targeted for April, and Musk's February reaffirmation of sub-$30,000 consumer sales before 2027—yet no customer orders or deliveries have materialized four months into the year. Tesla's Q1 2026 vehicle delivery miss fueled doubts on execution, while regulatory approvals for unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) remain pending, potentially delaying driverless deployment. Key catalyst: Upcoming Q1 earnings on April 22 could clarify ramp rates and pricing.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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